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Rollout Result and Brief Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 17 February 2014, at 4:09 p.m.

In Response To: Tough Play, Many Choices (Paul Weaver)

Thanks to all respondents, and special thanks to those who found the best play and did a good job giving the reasons.

I suspect that CMC and I may not be the only ones who would whopper/cheese this over the board.

Take a look at the right diagram, which shows the position after the best play has been made. White is now on roll. Let's look at White's good and bad rolls on the right. White has some rolls that hit and cover: 11 33 31 51 53, but even these leave some return shots, while White's 22pt anchor is still blocked. White's 55 66 leave her with timing problems: well ahead in the race, but her 22pt anchor is blocked. White also has some problematic rolls: 42 62 43 63 64 65. Even White's 32 52 54, which can be used to cover cleanly, leave her with distributional weaknesses.

I think the key here is to be able to see this as a prime-vs-prime position instead of a holding game.

White is shimohei score: 0 pip: 143 9 point match pip: 173 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=---b-BB-CA-AbCb--b-dAba-B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:9:10 Blue to play 54 1. Rollout1 20/15 13/9 eq: +0.177 Player: Opponent: 56.48% (G:14.21% B:0.69%) 43.52% (G:18.00% B:1.66%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.158...+0.196) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds 2. Rollout1 24/20 11/6 eq: +0.027 (-0.149) Player: Opponent: 50.57% (G:14.17% B:0.67%) 49.43% (G:14.94% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.012...+0.042) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 38 seconds 3. Rollout1 24/20 9/4 eq: +0.011 (-0.166) Player: Opponent: 50.89% (G:14.04% B:0.61%) 49.11% (G:16.85% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.005...+0.026) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 48 seconds 4. Rollout1 24/20 13/8 eq: -0.027 (-0.204) Player: Opponent: 50.16% (G:13.58% B:0.58%) 49.84% (G:17.37% B:0.89%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.044...-0.010) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds 5. Rollout1 9/4 8/4 eq: -0.051 (-0.228) Player: Opponent: 50.51% (G:14.50% B:0.68%) 49.49% (G:20.05% B:2.16%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.069...-0.034) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds 6. Rollout1 13/9 11/6 eq: -0.079 (-0.256) Player: Opponent: 50.09% (G:14.02% B:0.70%) 49.91% (G:19.81% B:1.97%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.097...-0.061) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is shimohei score: 0 pip: 143 9 point match pip: 164 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=---b-BB-CB-AbBbA-b-d-ba-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10 White on roll, cube action? eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Tough Play, Many Choices
  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 16 February 2014, at 6:13 p.m.
  • Tough Play, Many Choices
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 16 February 2014, at 6:30 p.m.
    • Message for CMC
      Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 16 February 2014, at 8:26 p.m.
      • Message for CMC
        christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 9:54 a.m.
  • Tough Play, Many Choices
    Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 16 February 2014, at 8:48 p.m.
  • Tough Play, Many Choices
    garyo -- Sunday, 16 February 2014, at 9:12 p.m.
  • Tough Play, Many Choices
    Keene -- Sunday, 16 February 2014, at 10:50 p.m.
  • Tough Play, Many Choices
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 12:30 a.m.
  • Tough Play, Many Choices
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 4:06 a.m.
    • Tough Play, Many Choices
      Fatboy -- Tuesday, 18 February 2014, at 9:29 p.m.
      • Tough Play, Many Choices
        Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 19 February 2014, at 6:16 a.m.
  • Rollout Result and Brief Commentary
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 4:09 p.m.
    • Rollout Result and Brief Commentary
      Stick -- Monday, 17 February 2014, at 4:28 p.m.