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Rollout Result and Brief Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 17 February 2014, at 4:09 p.m.

In Response To: Tough Play, Many Choices (Paul Weaver)

Thanks to all respondents, and special thanks to those who found the best play and did a good job giving the reasons.

I suspect that CMC and I may not be the only ones who would whopper/cheese this over the board.

Take a look at the right diagram, which shows the position after the best play has been made. White is now on roll. Let's look at White's good and bad rolls on the right. White has some rolls that hit and cover: 11 33 31 51 53, but even these leave some return shots, while White's 22pt anchor is still blocked. White's 55 66 leave her with timing problems: well ahead in the race, but her 22pt anchor is blocked. White also has some problematic rolls: 42 62 43 63 64 65. Even White's 32 52 54, which can be used to cover cleanly, leave her with distributional weaknesses.

I think the key here is to be able to see this as a prime-vs-prime position instead of a holding game.





White is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 143
9 point match
pip: 173
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---b-BB-CA-AbCb--b-dAba-B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout120/15 13/9eq: +0.177
Player:
Opponent:
56.48% (G:14.21% B:0.69%)
43.52% (G:18.00% B:1.66%)
Conf.: 0.019 (+0.158...+0.196) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout124/20 11/6eq: +0.027 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:
50.57% (G:14.17% B:0.67%)
49.43% (G:14.94% B:0.59%)
Conf.: 0.015 (+0.012...+0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 9/4eq: +0.011 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent:
50.89% (G:14.04% B:0.61%)
49.11% (G:16.85% B:0.68%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.005...+0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout124/20 13/8eq: -0.027 (-0.204)
Player:
Opponent:
50.16% (G:13.58% B:0.58%)
49.84% (G:17.37% B:0.89%)
Conf.: 0.017 (-0.044...-0.010) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds
5.Rollout19/4 8/4eq: -0.051 (-0.228)
Player:
Opponent:
50.51% (G:14.50% B:0.68%)
49.49% (G:20.05% B:2.16%)
Conf.: 0.018 (-0.069...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds
6.Rollout113/9 11/6eq: -0.079 (-0.256)
Player:
Opponent:
50.09% (G:14.02% B:0.70%)
49.91% (G:19.81% B:1.97%)
Conf.: 0.018 (-0.097...-0.061) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 143
9 point match
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---b-BB-CB-AbBbA-b-d-ba-B-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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