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OLM 20140307A The Prime Factors — Decision

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 9 March 2014, at 2:22 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140307A The Prime Factors -- Consultation (Jason Lee)

The Dilly Builders vs. The Prime Factors

Click any move to see the position.

Game 1   9-away, 9-away   Dilly Builders: 51S-54S-42P-61P-33A-F-C-P
Game 2   8-away, 9-away   Prime Factors: 52S-64H-62U-41P-21$-41U-F-N-42P-52C-C-T-41P-31P-31H-32H-F-22-51-N-11

White is The Dilly Builders

score: 1
pip: 151
9 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is The Prime Factors
Blue to play 11

The Decision: n = 11/10(2), 4/3*(2)

I reviewed three plays in my original post, but somehow overlooked n = 11/10(2), 4/3*(2). Worse, I thought we would be stuck with eight checkers in the zone, no matter how many times we hit: “If we want we can hit once or twice, but even if we don’t hit, there is no way we can get more checkers in the zone.”

The presumed lack of builders was my main reason for not wanting to hit. It was not until I saw Casper’s first vote that I realized my oversight. Since reading that, I have been leaning strongly towards n = 11/10(2), 4/3*(2).

The posts by Daniel, Casper, Steve, Stick, Fatboy, Lenny, and Igor closed the deal. I think they comprise a fine bit of analysis. Thanks, guys.

The posts by Gary and Bob in this thread are important ones. They present the counterargument that caused me to take a hard look at making the bar point. Eventually I decided against it, however, because I am worried the Dillies will slot our 4pt. I think we need the option to hit when we roll a 6 next time. And if the Dillies should manage to make our 4pt, I prefer to be left holding the 10pt over the bar point.

Those of you who have followed my posts in the OLM know that I am my own man. I’ve got a hundred bonehead plays that prove it. In a consultation, I’m tossing out my initial vote, and starting from scratch. I’m paying attention to everyone’s vote regardless whether it is accompanied by an explanation. Sometimes, no explanation is needed, because I can infer what you are thinking. But if you want to have maximum influence on me, help me out by offering a bit of your reasoning.

Now that the decision is final, I hope the Dillies will feel free to comment. Were you wrong or right in your first impressions? If you have changed your mind since then, what influenced you to do so? We can treat this position just as though we were in a regular OLM against the bot. Kibitzers are free to jump in too.



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