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Double Match Point:Winning Chances ?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 28 April 2014, at 3:29 p.m.

In Response To: Double Match Point:Winning Chances ? (HOMINID)

The question is not just of academic interest because it can manifest itself as a cube problem.

With 6 checkers off, you're not that much of a dog even after you're closed out. Ignoring the risk of getting a second or third checker sent back, you'd have nearly 30% winning chances after getting closed out. The risk of the second checker getting sent back pulls the winning chances down a bit. The fact that you're not yet closed out pulls your winning chances back up somewhat, but not by much, because your chances of escaping (as you did in the actual game) are low. I'd guess something like 24% or 25% winning chances. In particular if you were to dance and this were a money game, I'd judge it to be a close take.

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