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BGonline.org Forums
Where Goldilocks Came From
Posted By: mamabear In Response To: Backgammon + The Goldilocks Zone - Define - Rollout - Long (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 4 May 2014, at 7:45 p.m.
I'll say "what he said" about Timothy's post, because it beats looking the stuff up. Given my interest in bears, if someone else had used the term Goldilocks Zone the way you mean, I think I would have remembered, but I don't, so when it comes to holding games, I think it's yours. Robertie wrote quite a bit about holding game doubles quite early in BG timeline terms, but I don't recall his using that expression, and it doesn't sound like something he'd say anyway.
I haven't heard of anyone specifically noting or writing up the bit about the 9% and the addition of 7 to get the others, so I'll assume it's yours. You can find other patterns by looking down diagonals, or by using L-shaped patterns: for example, 1a5a CR is 16%; so is 2a7a; so is 3a9a. It breaks down at 4a11, which is 14.6; but when is the last time you would have made an error if you winged that one at 16 instead of having 14.6 memorized?
Regarding two others you asked about here:
...I assume others realized the importance of finding the dmp play before myself and I probably did to it what I did for 'Next!' but I can never remember seeing/hearing about that before applying it and over emphasizing it myself. ...
I have always said, and remember saying to you, that in the early going, pre-cube, and no special score, if the bot tells me I made a small error, but my play was correct at DMP, I just blow it off and don't try to "correct my thinking". I'm not unhappy if I play the early game DMP-style if the money-play errors are small. But generalizing it to all stages of the game is where you or maybe someone else took it, because I didn't. It may very well be that you did that first.
...Stumbling into the fact that a ton of fourth roll positions have a 65/35 win percentage breakdown assuming [66] was the second roll and the other player rolled nothing special on his turns I'm sure was unique and has paid off for me on multiple occasions. ...
The way I learned it from other people, and I will try really hard to stir up the brain sludge enough to remember who I heard say it first, was that to have a good double after a second-roll 66, you need one more net improvement. Usually what this means is obvious: an extra home board point, or maybe the 9 but they don't counter that improvement at all. One non-obvious specific I have added is that if the opponent rolls something awful that trashes their board early, or loses their 8 point messily, you may be able to count that as a negative improvement for counting purposes. Another is that if you have the 5 point but have kept your 8 point, and so have a solid four point block, that counts extra--you can probably double even if they've improved in some way that isn't as special.
And here's one of mine: That structure, the 8-7-6-5 points, is the Structure Worth More than the Sum of Its Parts, or to its friends, just the Structure Worth More.
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