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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20140610B The Prime Factors
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: OLM 20140610B The Prime Factors (Havard Raddum)
Date: Wednesday, 11 June 2014, at 8:06 a.m.
Coming out the bar point is more dangerous here that it is on the opening throw. Sure, if we are hit loose, we will have return shots, but if our opponents can also make their 5pt, there will be fewer returns than after an opening 6-split and hit.
As an exercise, I counted the rolls that the Dillies could use to both hit and cover after we run out to the 18pt. The hitting numbers are 1, 4, and 6. After a hit, the cover numbers are 1, 2, 3, and sometimes 6. Toss in a few extra doublets, and the total comes to 21 rolls that both hit and cover: 11, 22, 33, 44, 66, 63, 62, 61, 43, 42, 41, 31, and 21. Of those rolls, only 12 leave a blot on the bar point (33, 44, 63, 61, 43, 41, and 31). The other 9 either make both the 5pt and bar point, or else lift the blot on the bar point and use it to cover. Thus, 58% of the time we would be hit, and face the best two-point board from the bar. 33% of the time, we would be shooting fly shots at a blot on the bar point as our only compensation.
Is that really better than the simple 51-split or 51-slot?
This analysis ignores the 15 rolls that do not both hit and cover. Among them, I presume there are several that would let the Dillies make their 5pt without hitting. I’ll leave the counting as an exercise for someone else. The bottom line, I think, is that forcing the action on the bar point right now is too dangerous for us to risk. The best way to increase the odds that we can better our anchor is to split with the 1. That way, 21, 32, 65, and perhaps 43 could be used to make a more advanced anchor.
Mike
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