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Cube Position at alternative Score 4a2a

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Friday, 27 June 2014, at 1:47 p.m.

In Response To: 41 to play - ROLLOUTS (Keene)

Hello Keene,

thank you for posting these positions and the according rollouts. With regard to the cube position, I was quite convinced that it should be a Double/Take at 4a2a. Therefore, I started a rollout. The results indicate that I was wrong in my assumption. It is then still too early to double.

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 164
5 point match
pip: 157
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-bB---D-B---dEa--c-da---B-:0:0:1:00:1:3:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 52,00% (G:16,96% B:2,46%) 52,35% (G:16,19% B:3,50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48,00% (G:13,35% B:1,50%) 47,65% (G:13,42% B:1,66%)
Cubeless Equities +0,007 +0,462
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,4870,008 (+0,479..+0,496)
Double/Take:+0,462 (-0,025)0,010 (+0,452..+0,472)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,513)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4,5%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74963291
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Wolfgang

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