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this should be easy.. - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Saturday, 28 June 2014, at 1:03 p.m.

In Response To: this should be easy.. - ROLLOUT (Timothy Chow)

Definition 2 looks simpler and more intuitive at first, but it's ambiguous. At a score when the cube is live, what does it mean to assess the probability of winning "with no cube"? You can't just remove the cube; you have to define how subsequent play is to proceed.

I would say you calculate the value (MWC or EMG) of winning, on average, a single game, gammon, and backgammon, or losing a single game, gammon, and backgammon, and then play the game out using those values. It is true that calculating those values when the cube is still alive can be difficult. But I don't think that is a reason not to use this definition -- rather, it is a reason to try and improve our technology. Knowing these values is very useful.

If I leave out the word "(pseudo)cubeless," I feel that I do the BG community a disservice, because most people aren't aware that those numbers are ATS figures at some scores but not others. By using the word "pseudocubeless" I remind people that those numbers need to be interpreted with caution.

Yes, referring to the w/g/bg breakdown produced by bot rollouts as "cubeless" is a misnomer. But sticking "pseudo" in front seems to just add to the confusion.

Definition 2 (as clarified above) has real value. For Definition 1, I would use the term "money-play cubeless equity."

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