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Posted By: Martin
Date: Sunday, 24 August 2014, at 10:59 a.m.

In Response To: Position from MC: 61 to play in holding game (Martin)

This came to a surprise to me. I played 8/2 6/5 (which is about the same as 8/2 8/7). XG tells me to race in a position where I am down in the race.
In retrospect, I think the reason for running is a combination of chances in the race (being 4 pips down after the roll), the relatively little danger of being attacked and the extra shots after opp rolls like 61, 54, 52, 42, 66 or 11.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121

17 point match

pip: 132
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=---BABC-C--acBa--bbc-bB-a-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:17:10
to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/7 eq: -0,540
Player:
Opponent: 35,39% (G:5,68% B:0,21%)
64,61% (G:12,24% B:0,43%) Conf.: ą 0,005 (-0,545...-0,535) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/5 eq: -0,554 (-0,014)
Player:
Opponent: 34,69% (G:5,12% B:0,16%)
65,31% (G:10,71% B:0,26%) Conf.: ą 0,005 (-0,559...-0,549) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 22/16 5/4 eq: -0,558 (-0,018)
Player:
Opponent: 34,62% (G:5,35% B:0,20%)
65,38% (G:11,83% B:0,29%) Conf.: ą 0,005 (-0,563...-0,553) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
4. Rollout² 8/2 6/5 eq: -0,660 (-0,120)
Player:
Opponent: 31,61% (G:3,14% B:0,07%)
68,39% (G:5,06% B:0,14%) Conf.: ą 0,007 (-0,667...-0,653) - [0,0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 58 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19053
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19053
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2