
BGonline.org Forums
Win by 2.
Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 27 September 2014, at 10:05 p.m.
In Response To: Win by 2. (Rick Janowski)
"The take point at 22 post Crawford is about 32%"
It is higher:
Let X be equity at 2a 1a PC. At the 2a 1a score there will be an automatic double and take. If we use 24% gammon rate then:
50% of time leader wins giving trailer 0 equity 38% of time trailer wins single obtaining 1X equity 12% of time trailer wins gammon obtaining 1 equity.
X = .12 + .38(1X) X = .12 + .38  .38X 1.38X = .50
X = .362
Even using 0% gammon rate would give X = 1/3.
Using .36 as match equity at 2a 1a PC we can now estimate 2a 1a C (and thus take point at 2a 2a pre Crawford).
50% of time goes to 0 win chance 38% of time goes to tied score and 50% win chance 12% of time goes to 1a 2a PC and 64% win chance.
Equity is approximately 27% at 2a 1a Crawford.

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.