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Win by 2.

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 27 September 2014, at 10:05 p.m.

In Response To: Win by 2. (Rick Janowski)

"The take point at -2-2 post Crawford is about 32%"

It is higher:

Let X be equity at 2a 1a PC. At the 2a 1a score there will be an automatic double and take. If we use 24% gammon rate then:

50% of time leader wins giving trailer 0 equity 38% of time trailer wins single obtaining 1-X equity 12% of time trailer wins gammon obtaining 1 equity.

X = .12 + .38(1-X) X = .12 + .38 - .38X 1.38X = .50

X = .362

Even using 0% gammon rate would give X = 1/3.

Using .36 as match equity at 2a 1a PC we can now estimate 2a 1a C (and thus take point at 2a 2a pre Crawford).

50% of time goes to 0 win chance 38% of time goes to tied score and 50% win chance 12% of time goes to 1a 2a PC and 64% win chance.

Equity is approximately 27% at 2a 1a Crawford.

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