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BGonline.org Forums
Something else to keep in mind
Posted By: phil simborg In Response To: looking for score adjustments for Keith count (__1ERROR1__)
Date: Friday, 17 October 2014, at 1:17 a.m.
Like several other responders, I use 2 percent per pip to determine if it is a take, but I don't believe anyone has advised you on how to adjust your doubling window.
For money, the Keith count has us double when we are over by 4 and redouble when over by 3. Essentially, that means that if the take point is 21.5, we are doubling when the taker has 26 percent and redoubling when the taker has about 24 percent. But should we apply that same ratio at other scores?
The answer is no. At different scores we should double sooner or later depending on recube vig. Generally, if you are behind in the score you probably should be doubling sooner, and if you are ahead in the score, you should be doubling later and be more willing to lose your market. How much sooner or later? That would take some time to figure out and discuss, and of course, it also depends on the length of the race and the human factors (your skill vs. opponent's skill and your knowledge of your opponent's cube tendencies).
I can tell you that when your opponent is 2away and you are more than 2away, you can double when he is within 8 percent of his take point (if his take point is 22 percent you should double when he has 30 percent or less winning chances). I have tested this with XG extensively, and it is a very good number to use. However, I use, and recommend 7 percent because of the "human factors" (more likely to get a wrong drop or take by waiting).
Also, when there are checkers off, I use I-sight adjustments instead of the Keith wastage adjustments, and I also take I-sight into account when there are differences in crossovers.
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