I am the donkey who blundered it OTB. I was also surprised to see the XG analysis as I felt comfortable with my play that made two home-board points without leaving a shot (instead of volunteering a shot). I am surprised that it seems straightforward to some, because I am still confused here, especially when you look at the XG++ evaluation for the variants below (for money). Does the effect of killing a checker changes everything so dramatically?? Moreover, I disagree that it is a "pay now or later" position, as the pay now play doesn't prevent you from paying later as well.
My bottom line is that I still don't understand the position/play.
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 111
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AABBaCB----cB---bBcbbb---:0:0:1:56:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 56 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 7/2 7/1 | eq: +0.169 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.02% (G:11.55% B:0.07%)
44.98% (G:9.62% B:0.27%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.156 (-0.325) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.27% (G:4.86% B:0.06%)
53.73% (G:8.56% B:0.25%) | |
|
| 3. | 1-ply | 13/2 | eq: -0.237 (-0.406) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.81% (G:6.14% B:0.04%)
56.19% (G:11.55% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 4. | 1-ply | 13/7 6/1 | eq: -0.291 (-0.460) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.14% (G:5.69% B:0.04%)
57.86% (G:11.68% B:0.43%) | |
|
| 5. | 1-ply | 7/1 6/1 | eq: -0.454 (-0.623) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.28% (G:5.12% B:0.04%)
61.72% (G:16.24% B:0.52%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 117 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 113
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AABAaDB----cB---bBcbbb---:0:0:1:56:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 56 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 7/2 7/1 | eq: -0.171 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.44% (G:8.69% B:0.07%)
54.56% (G:14.88% B:0.51%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.228 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.15% (G:3.29% B:0.04%)
55.85% (G:8.53% B:0.19%) | |
|
| 3. | 2-ply | 13/7 6/1 | eq: -0.381 (-0.210) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.67% (G:4.16% B:0.03%)
60.33% (G:12.81% B:0.46%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 13/2 | eq: -0.381 (-0.210) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.66% (G:4.40% B:0.05%)
60.34% (G:12.95% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 5. | 1-ply | 7/1 6/1 | eq: -0.592 (-0.420) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.79% (G:4.03% B:0.03%)
64.21% (G:17.15% B:0.69%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10