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What is the doubling point?

Posted By: niuniuch
Date: Friday, 21 November 2014, at 3:07 p.m.

I started to study match scores and equities and it turns out that's there a basic concept I don't understand.

The following is an example at 2-away, 3-away, but I have the same problem at normal match score also.

is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 134
9 point match
pip: 127
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=------CBCBBC-cbbba-e------:0:0:1:00:7:6:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68,28% (G:0,01% B:0,00%) 68,41% (G:0,02% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31,72% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 31,59% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities +0,366 +1,281
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,602
Double/Take:+0,468 (-0,133)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,398)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20,0%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

XG says that the doubling point at this score is 66,7%, which makes perfect sense, since we're risking 50% MWC to gain 25%. The winning chances in this position are 68,3% which should make it a close, but clear double. Why do you have to get to 71,3% to have a double if the DP is 66,7%? What is the point of calculating DP if it doesn't tell me if I should double or not?

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