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What is the doubling point?
Posted By: niuniuch
Date: Friday, 21 November 2014, at 3:07 p.m.
I started to study match scores and equities and it turns out that's there a basic concept I don't understand.
The following is an example at 2away, 3away, but I have the same problem at normal match score also.
is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 1349 point match pip: 127
score: 7
is Player 1XGID=CBCBBCcbbbae:0:0:1:00:7:6:0:9:10 on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68,28% (G:0,01% B:0,00%) 68,41% (G:0,02% B:0,00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31,72% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 31,59% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Cubeless Equities +0,366 +1,281 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,602 Double/Take: +0,468 (0,133) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,398) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20,0% eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
XG says that the doubling point at this score is 66,7%, which makes perfect sense, since we're risking 50% MWC to gain 25%. The winning chances in this position are 68,3% which should make it a close, but clear double. Why do you have to get to 71,3% to have a double if the DP is 66,7%? What is the point of calculating DP if it doesn't tell me if I should double or not?

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