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What is the doubling point?
Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Saturday, 22 November 2014, at 4:29 a.m.
In Response To: What is the doubling point? (niuniuch)
The doubling point is accurate if it is the last roll or at scores where there is a dead cube and no possibility of a redouble. For money, you double or redouble on the last roll if you win more than 50%. But if there is a possibility of a redouble, you have to be stronger. In a money game, I have found that you need to win at least 67 percent cubeless to redouble if your opponent can have a recube.
In match play, unless you have done a lot of study, it is no easy to know your minimum doubling point for all scores, but I have created a chart of all the doubling points and found a pattern. Under 5away/5away, on the last roll, you can generally double a dead cube around 40 percent if you are the leader. If the score is tied, it's always 50 percent. At 2away/4away the leader can double at 35%. If you are the trailer you can pretty much use 59 percent across the board for most scores, except 4/2 and 5/2 where it's 65 and 69 percent respectively. This is not hard to memorize. Now, occasionally I forget or get confused and then you have to stop and do the math.
To do the math, you need to know your math equities. Learning those are also a lot easier if you find patters, and if you simply stare at the chart you will see that at most scores in middlerange matches (3away to 9away) if you are losing by 1 point your equity is in the 4345 percent range, and if you are losing by 2 it's in the 35 to 40 percent range...higher at the fartheraway scores, of course.
Learn how these are calculated and learn how to calculate them, but save yourself a lot of brain damage and time over the board by looking for patters and finding shortcuts.

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