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BGonline.org Forums
What is the doubling point?
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: What is the doubling point? (niuniuch)
Date: Saturday, 22 November 2014, at 4:29 a.m.
The doubling point is accurate if it is the last roll or at scores where there is a dead cube and no possibility of a redouble. For money, you double or redouble on the last roll if you win more than 50%. But if there is a possibility of a redouble, you have to be stronger. In a money game, I have found that you need to win at least 67 percent cubeless to redouble if your opponent can have a recube.
In match play, unless you have done a lot of study, it is no easy to know your minimum doubling point for all scores, but I have created a chart of all the doubling points and found a pattern. Under 5away/5away, on the last roll, you can generally double a dead cube around 40 percent if you are the leader. If the score is tied, it's always 50 percent. At 2away/4away the leader can double at 35%. If you are the trailer you can pretty much use 59 percent across the board for most scores, except 4/2 and 5/2 where it's 65 and 69 percent respectively. This is not hard to memorize. Now, occasionally I forget or get confused and then you have to stop and do the math.
To do the math, you need to know your math equities. Learning those are also a lot easier if you find patters, and if you simply stare at the chart you will see that at most scores in middle-range matches (3away to 9away) if you are losing by 1 point your equity is in the 43-45 percent range, and if you are losing by 2 it's in the 35 to 40 percent range...higher at the farther-away scores, of course.
Learn how these are calculated and learn how to calculate them, but save yourself a lot of brain damage and time over the board by looking for patters and finding shortcuts.
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