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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150405A The Prime Factors -- Upon further review
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 20150405A The Prime Factors -- CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 6 April 2015, at 10:10 p.m.
Going over six plays (actually I looked at 7) is pretty tough/confusing. It's clear we are down to two plays which (probably) each represent the best of their category of play: 7/3(2) and 15/7. Let's go through the 36 rolls just giving +/- (good or bad) for 3(2) relative to 15/7.
Both fan: {44,45,46,55,56,66} = 9 rolls. If opp fans you'd rather have four points already made in the HB, and be trying for the 5th. +9 to 3(2).
Fan only after 3(2): {33,34,35,36} = 7 rolls. Obviously better for 3(2). +7 for 3(2).
Enter and hit for both: {26} = 2 rolls. Clearly better for 15/7 because of the fewer blots. -2 for 3(2).
An outside hit only after 3(2): {22,25} = 3 rolls. Obviously better for 15/7. -3 for 3(2).
Rolls that enter but miss in either case: {14, 24} = 4 rolls. Again, if you're not on the bar you like having the extra homeboard point. +4 for 3(2).
rolls that hit inside Dillies' homeboard: {11,13,23,15} = 7 rolls. Better (when hit) to have fewer blots. -7 for 3(2).
Bananas Split (or not): {12} = 2 rolls. Pretty sure this favors having the extra point no matter which way Dillies choose to play it. +2 for 3(2).
All that's left: {16} = 2 rolls. This hits after 3(2) and leaves outfield flyshots after 15/7. -2 to 3(2).
Raw tally: net +8 (22 to 14) in favor of 3(2).
Ok, did I shortchange 15/7 because of plays not being of equal value? I doubt it. But this is where wishy-washy judgement bears its head. Bottom line is that +8 is a huge lead which seems difficult to overcome by arguing for extra (net) quantitative value over the qualitative score given above.
3(2) (changed vote for the last time :)
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