        
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 203 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 123
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBBbBcC--A--bBA--cAd----A-:2:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 9/7 | eq: +0.150 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.38% (G:34.74% B:0.50%)
45.62% (G:8.61% B:0.33%) | Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.137...+0.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/10 | eq: +0.079 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.68% (G:32.43% B:0.50%)
47.32% (G:9.60% B:0.42%) | Conf.: � 0.014 (+0.066...+0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/18 9/7 | eq: +0.079 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.30% (G:31.50% B:0.41%)
46.70% (G:9.56% B:0.42%) | Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.066...+0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/16 | eq: +0.073 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.01% (G:30.95% B:0.44%)
46.99% (G:9.41% B:0.39%) | Conf.: � 0.014 (+0.060...+0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Your rollout of the original position is copied above.
As long as White has only a 1-point board and is on the bar, moving the back checker is a low priority for Blue.Here, the 7pt is handed to you on a silver platter. Making points in order, from the closest back, is your safest plan in the long run. So, you grab the premium 7pt landing spot when you can (if not, then the 8pt, or if not then sometimes another near-outer point), until then stay flexible, blot-aprayed even, as White's midpoint is stripped. When White enters, only then should you balance your priorities with a modicum of safety (unless/until you rehit).
In the XGR++ evaluation of Variant 1 below, making the 7pt (leaving five blots) is best by far, While the "safest" (1-blot) play is twelfth place and .093 back.
Variant 2, the contrasting position I first prepared (prior to seeing your rollout and "still scratching my head" admission), demonstrates that tradeoffs change somewhat as White's board strengthens: Blue has to give more weight (than before) to progressive consolidation (cover 18pt, then break it to cover the 14pt or 13pt, etc.)
Nack
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 9/7 | eq: +0.122 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.06% (G:32.39% B:0.67%)
45.94% (G:9.34% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 16/10 9/7 | eq: +0.071 (-0.051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.08% (G:30.36% B:0.67%)
46.92% (G:10.21% B:0.50%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 18/10 | eq: +0.069 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.01% (G:30.49% B:0.70%)
46.99% (G:10.19% B:0.50%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 9/7 | eq: +0.065 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.44% (G:28.62% B:0.59%)
46.56% (G:9.88% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 18/16 13/7 | eq: +0.051 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.43% (G:30.08% B:0.68%)
47.57% (G:10.40% B:0.50%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller++ | 24/16 | eq: +0.049 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.09% (G:27.95% B:0.58%)
46.91% (G:10.00% B:0.43%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller++ | 18/16 14/8 | eq: +0.046 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.51% (G:29.38% B:0.64%)
47.49% (G:10.38% B:0.47%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller++ | 14/6 | eq: +0.046 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.24% (G:29.95% B:0.71%)
47.76% (G:10.33% B:0.48%) | |
|
| 9. | XG Roller++ | 14/8 9/7 | eq: +0.043 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.54% (G:29.25% B:0.64%)
47.46% (G:10.71% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 10. | XG Roller++ | 16/14 13/7 | eq: +0.037 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.16% (G:29.42% B:0.68%)
47.84% (G:10.58% B:0.51%) | |
|
| 11. | XG Roller++ | 24/22 16/10 | eq: +0.037 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.36% (G:29.32% B:0.69%)
47.64% (G:10.80% B:0.57%) | |
|
| 12. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 16/14 | eq: +0.030 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.66% (G:27.46% B:0.56%)
47.34% (G:10.12% B:0.45%) | |
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 9/7 | eq: -0.005 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.04% (G:29.27% B:0.41%)
48.96% (G:10.61% B:0.43%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.012...+0.002) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 9/7 | eq: -0.020 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.04% (G:30.62% B:0.43%)
49.96% (G:10.94% B:0.45%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.027...-0.013) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 hours 57 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/16 | eq: -0.053 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.02% (G:27.93% B:0.42%)
49.98% (G:11.19% B:0.52%) | Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.063...-0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
