Puzzle 2.
Find a perfectly played, 5-move sequence leading to this position. Blue is on roll. The cube is centered.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 159 | Unlimited Game | pip: 142 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=aB-B-aC-B---dD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue on roll, cube action? |
Nack alerted me that my fourth solution, 52S-32N-F-55A-5-C, is not perfectly played! It is based on an opening 52S = 24/22 13/8, followed by 32N = 13/11 6/3*. So far, so good.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 160 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 167 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-a-a--E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue to play 32 |
1. | Book1 | 13/11 6/3* | eq: -0.1258 |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.46% (G:13.07% B:0.56%) 52.54% (G:16.49% B:1.09%) | Conf.: ±0.0050 (-0.1308...-0.1209) - [98.9%] |
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2. | Book1 | 24/21 13/11 | eq: -0.1338 (-0.0079) |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.99% (G:12.24% B:0.50%) 53.01% (G:15.37% B:0.73%) | Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.1385...-0.1290) - [1.1%] |
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3. | Book2 | 6/3* 3/1* | eq: -0.1448 (-0.0190) |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.58% (G:13.01% B:0.40%) 53.42% (G:15.59% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ±0.0027 (-0.1475...-0.1421) - [0.0%] |
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1 Generated by Steven Carey on 4/7/2013 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32325706 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 Generated by Steven Carey on 3/31/2013 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 90680458 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
As is shown in the rollout above, 32N = 13/11 6/3* is the best play. This move can also be nactated as 32H, so 52S-32H-F-55A-5-C is another way to nactate the sequence.
After a fan, 55 is a problem. The move in my solution, 55A = 11/1, 8/3, 6/1, is not perfect. As Nack reported, it trails by around 0.01. Here is my rollout.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 163 | Unlimited Game | pip: 162 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=aa-A--D-C--AdD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 55 |
1. | Rollout1 | 13/3 6/1*(2) | eq: +0.7409 |
| Player: Opponent: | 63.68% (G:34.70% B:0.53%) 36.32% (G:9.07% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ±0.0030 (+0.7379...+0.7439) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 11/1* 8/3 6/1 | eq: +0.7296 (-0.0113) |
| Player: Opponent: | 63.57% (G:34.42% B:0.52%) 36.43% (G:8.97% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ±0.0030 (+0.7266...+0.7327) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes |
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1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59637544 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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Rollout by Taper_Mike 2015-Nov-11 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 52S-32H-F-55-n-tm.xgp n[I A11] "<=31 n[I A2.5] "&e |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
In addition to identifying this imperfect 55 above, Nack also discovered another solution that was perfect. It is very similar to the ones detailed in the preceding post. Instead of entering only one checker on the third roll, it enters two:
51S-41K-53-55J-F
Mike