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Who is crazy here?!

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Wednesday, 11 November 2015, at 6:47 p.m.





White is Zenq

score: 1
pip: 103
7 point match
pip: 96
score: 2

Blue is Mislav
XGID=-AA-BADBBb---B--aabcbb-b--:0:0:1:54:2:1:0:7:10
Blue to play 54

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

So, I played 8/3 7/3 here.

Roller+ thinks I made a massive blunder:

1.XG Roller+8/4 8/3eq: +0,671
Player:
Opponent:
71,52% (G:1,86% B:0,03%)
28,48% (G:0,68% B:0,04%)
2.XG Roller+8/3 7/3eq: +0,453 (-0,218)
Player:
Opponent:
67,35% (G:0,54% B:0,01%)
32,65% (G:0,43% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Roller++ reduces the difference but still considers my move a pretty big blunder:

1.XG Roller++8/4 8/3eq: +0,568
Player:
Opponent:
69,30% (G:1,08% B:0,01%)
30,70% (G:0,62% B:0,02%)
2.XG Roller++8/3 7/3eq: +0,451 (-0,117)
Player:
Opponent:
67,07% (G:0,36% B:0,00%)
32,93% (G:0,51% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Rollout agrees with Roller++:

1.Rollout18/4 8/3eq: +0,573
Player:
Opponent:
69,28% (G:1,02% B:0,01%)
30,72% (G:0,69% B:0,03%)
Conf.: 0,008 (+0,565...+0,581) - [100,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout18/3 7/3eq: +0,459 (-0,114)
Player:
Opponent:
66,98% (G:0,34% B:0,01%)
33,02% (G:0,50% B:0,01%)
Conf.: 0,008 (+0,450...+0,467) - [0,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


I am completely clueless as to why XG's preferred move would be so much better than mine. Any explanations?

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