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Variants (four best plays)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 8:34 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Original Position

1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.867
 Player:Opponent: 36.06% (G:9.45% B:0.48%)63.94% (G:35.43% B:3.78%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.876...-0.857) - [100.0%]Duration: 53 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.894 (-0.027)
 Player:Opponent: 34.45% (G:9.40% B:0.43%)65.55% (G:35.42% B:1.17%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.903...-0.885) - [0.0%]Duration: 47 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.945 (-0.079)
 Player:Opponent: 34.39% (G:7.00% B:0.36%)65.61% (G:35.58% B:1.22%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.955...-0.936) - [0.0%]Duration: 51 minutes 14 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/14eq: -0.978 (-0.111)
 Player:Opponent: 33.92% (G:7.60% B:0.47%)66.08% (G:36.56% B:1.36%) Conf.: � 0.017 (-0.995...-0.961) - [0.0%]Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Tim's rollout of the original position.

Diagrammed below, you will see five positions that make a single adjustment to and contrast the original. In these variants, according to rollouts, D (Down, bar/20 13/7, the best play in the original position) is an error of .044 on average.

Between the original and the variants, each of Blue's four legal moves is represented at least once as the best play.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited GameBeaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBcC-A---bE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 13/20

1.Rollout1Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.673
 Player:Opponent: 38.09% (G:7.99% B:0.38%)61.91% (G:32.39% B:1.18%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.682...-0.664) - [99.0%]Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.688 (-0.015)
 Player:Opponent: 37.14% (G:10.71% B:0.50%)62.86% (G:32.77% B:1.14%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.697...-0.679) - [1.0%]Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.735 (-0.062)
 Player:Opponent: 37.67% (G:9.76% B:0.45%)62.33% (G:33.53% B:3.71%) Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.752...-0.718) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/14eq: -0.765 (-0.092)
 Player:Opponent: 37.14% (G:8.33% B:0.40%)62.86% (G:34.33% B:1.47%) Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.782...-0.747) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes

1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited GameBeaver pip: 153 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbBC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10

Variant 2
White's 20pt and Blue's 4pt are switched

1.Rollout1Bar/14eq: -0.621
 Player:Opponent: 38.79% (G:8.43% B:0.41%)61.21% (G:32.16% B:1.10%) Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.637...-0.604) - [100.0%]Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.708 (-0.087)
 Player:Opponent: 38.35% (G:11.10% B:0.66%)61.65% (G:34.80% B:3.77%) Conf.: กำ 0.019 (-0.726...-0.689) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.714 (-0.093)
 Player:Opponent: 36.92% (G:10.73% B:0.45%)63.08% (G:33.81% B:1.11%) Conf.: กำ 0.018 (-0.731...-0.696) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.737 (-0.116)
 Player:Opponent: 37.32% (G:9.11% B:0.52%)62.68% (G:34.77% B:1.24%) Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.754...-0.719) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes

1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 128 Unlimited GameBeaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10

Variant 3
Compared to the original, White owns her 1pt instead of 2pt

1.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.713
 Player:Opponent: 37.08% (G:9.60% B:0.42%)62.92% (G:33.38% B:0.65%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.722...-0.704) - [98.1%]Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.726 (-0.013)
 Player:Opponent: 37.96% (G:9.61% B:0.51%)62.04% (G:33.95% B:2.71%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.735...-0.717) - [1.9%]Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.798 (-0.085)
 Player:Opponent: 36.42% (G:7.49% B:0.43%)63.58% (G:34.43% B:0.79%) Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.815...-0.781) - [0.0%]Duration: 44 minutes 52 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/14eq: -0.873 (-0.160)
 Player:Opponent: 35.76% (G:8.42% B:0.53%)64.24% (G:36.85% B:0.99%) Conf.: กำ 0.017 (-0.890...-0.855) - [0.0%]Duration: 44 minutes 43 seconds

1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

If White's board is further deepened -- if she has her 2pt instead of 3pt, J (Jump, bar/20 8/2) crushes D (Down, 13/7) by .067 (rollout not shown).

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited GameBeaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--ab-c-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10

Variant 4
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/8

1.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.876
 Player:Opponent: 34.21% (G:8.68% B:0.37%)65.79% (G:32.96% B:1.13%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.885...-0.867) - [99.5%]Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.893 (-0.017)
 Player:Opponent: 35.56% (G:8.79% B:0.40%)64.44% (G:34.93% B:3.67%) Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.903...-0.884) - [0.5%]Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout2Bar/14eq: -0.930 (-0.053)
 Player:Opponent: 33.93% (G:7.43% B:0.44%)66.07% (G:34.02% B:1.22%) Conf.: กำ 0.018 (-0.948...-0.911) - [0.0%]Duration: 44 minutes 58 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.975 (-0.099)
 Player:Opponent: 33.64% (G:6.71% B:0.37%)66.36% (G:34.66% B:1.25%) Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.990...-0.960) - [0.0%]Duration: 44 minutes 36 seconds

1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited GameBeaver pip: 144 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbD-A---cD--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10

Variant 5
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 13/6

1.Rollout1Bar/20 8/2eq: -0.755
 Player:Opponent: 36.01% (G:10.49% B:0.44%)63.99% (G:32.68% B:1.02%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.764...-0.746) - [87.8%]Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 21/15eq: -0.763 (-0.008)
 Player:Opponent: 36.47% (G:7.92% B:0.39%)63.53% (G:32.41% B:1.09%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.772...-0.753) - [12.2%]Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 13/7eq: -0.793 (-0.038)
 Player:Opponent: 36.37% (G:10.16% B:0.52%)63.63% (G:32.99% B:3.43%) Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.803...-0.783) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/14eq: -0.802 (-0.047)
 Player:Opponent: 35.82% (G:8.80% B:0.56%)64.18% (G:33.60% B:1.36%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.811...-0.793) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes

1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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