Variants (four best plays)

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Variants (four best plays)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 8:34 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130

Unlimited Game

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/7 eq: -0.867
Player:
Opponent: 36.06% (G:9.45% B:0.48%)
63.94% (G:35.43% B:3.78%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.876...-0.857) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 02 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 8/2 eq: -0.894 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 34.45% (G:9.40% B:0.43%)
65.55% (G:35.42% B:1.17%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.903...-0.885) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 41 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 21/15 eq: -0.945 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent: 34.39% (G:7.00% B:0.36%)
65.61% (G:35.58% B:1.22%) Conf.: � 0.009 (-0.955...-0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 14 seconds
4. Rollout² Bar/14 eq: -0.978 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent: 33.92% (G:7.60% B:0.47%)
66.08% (G:36.56% B:1.36%) Conf.: � 0.017 (-0.995...-0.961) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Tim's rollout of the original position.
Diagrammed below, you will see five positions that make a single adjustment to and contrast the original. In these variants, according to rollouts, D (Down, bar/20 13/7, the best play in the original position) is an error of .044 on average.
Between the original and the variants, each of Blue's four legal moves is represented at least once as the best play.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBcC-A---bE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 1
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 13/20

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 21/15 eq: -0.673
Player:
Opponent: 38.09% (G:7.99% B:0.38%)
61.91% (G:32.39% B:1.18%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.682...-0.664) - [99.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 8/2 eq: -0.688 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 37.14% (G:10.71% B:0.50%)
62.86% (G:32.77% B:1.14%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.697...-0.679) - [1.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes
3. Rollout² Bar/20 13/7 eq: -0.735 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent: 37.67% (G:9.76% B:0.45%)
62.33% (G:33.53% B:3.71%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.752...-0.718) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 50 minutes
4. Rollout² Bar/14 eq: -0.765 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent: 37.14% (G:8.33% B:0.40%)
62.86% (G:34.33% B:1.47%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.782...-0.747) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BbBC-A---cE--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 2
White's 20pt and Blue's 4pt are switched

1. Rollout¹ Bar/14 eq: -0.621
Player:
Opponent: 38.79% (G:8.43% B:0.41%)
61.21% (G:32.16% B:1.10%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.637...-0.604) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/7 eq: -0.708 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent: 38.35% (G:11.10% B:0.66%)
61.65% (G:34.80% B:3.77%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.019 (-0.726...-0.689) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 8/2 eq: -0.714 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent: 36.92% (G:10.73% B:0.45%)
63.08% (G:33.81% B:1.11%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.018 (-0.731...-0.696) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes
4. Rollout¹ Bar/20 21/15 eq: -0.737 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent: 37.32% (G:9.11% B:0.52%)
62.68% (G:34.77% B:1.24%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.754...-0.719) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--aa-d-Ab-bA:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 3
Compared to the original, White owns her 1pt instead of 2pt

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 8/2 eq: -0.713
Player:
Opponent: 37.08% (G:9.60% B:0.42%)
62.92% (G:33.38% B:0.65%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.722...-0.704) - [98.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/7 eq: -0.726 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 37.96% (G:9.61% B:0.51%)
62.04% (G:33.95% B:2.71%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.735...-0.717) - [1.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes
3. Rollout² Bar/20 21/15 eq: -0.798 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent: 36.42% (G:7.49% B:0.43%)
63.58% (G:34.43% B:0.79%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.815...-0.781) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 52 seconds
4. Rollout² Bar/14 eq: -0.873 (-0.160)
Player:
Opponent: 35.76% (G:8.42% B:0.53%)
64.24% (G:36.85% B:0.99%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.017 (-0.890...-0.855) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 43 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

If White's board is further deepened -- if she has her 2pt instead of 3pt, J (Jump, bar/20 8/2) crushes D (Down, 13/7) by .067 (rollout not shown).

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBbC-A---cE--ab-c-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 4
Compared to the original, White is adjusted 6/8

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 8/2 eq: -0.876
Player:
Opponent: 34.21% (G:8.68% B:0.37%)
65.79% (G:32.96% B:1.13%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.885...-0.867) - [99.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/7 eq: -0.893 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent: 35.56% (G:8.79% B:0.40%)
64.44% (G:34.93% B:3.67%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.010 (-0.903...-0.884) - [0.5%]
Duration: 2 hours 01 minute
3. Rollout² Bar/14 eq: -0.930 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent: 33.93% (G:7.43% B:0.44%)
66.07% (G:34.02% B:1.22%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.018 (-0.948...-0.911) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 58 seconds
4. Rollout² Bar/20 21/15 eq: -0.975 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent: 33.64% (G:6.71% B:0.37%)
66.36% (G:34.66% B:1.25%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.015 (-0.990...-0.960) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 36 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBbD-A---cD--aa-d-Abb-A:0:0:1:65:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 5
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 13/6

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 8/2 eq: -0.755
Player:
Opponent: 36.01% (G:10.49% B:0.44%)
63.99% (G:32.68% B:1.02%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.764...-0.746) - [87.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 21/15 eq: -0.763 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 36.47% (G:7.92% B:0.39%)
63.53% (G:32.41% B:1.09%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.772...-0.753) - [12.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/7 eq: -0.793 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent: 36.37% (G:10.16% B:0.52%)
63.63% (G:32.99% B:3.43%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.010 (-0.803...-0.783) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes
4. Rollout² Bar/14 eq: -0.802 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 35.82% (G:8.80% B:0.56%)
64.18% (G:33.60% B:1.36%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.009 (-0.811...-0.793) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

The good news is that I didn't dance
Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 14 November 2015, at 8:19 p.m.
- The good news is that I didn't dance
  konstantin -- Saturday, 14 November 2015, at 9:19 p.m.
- The good news is that I didn't dance
  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 15 November 2015, at 5:04 p.m.
  - The good news is that I didn't dance
    Chase -- Sunday, 15 November 2015, at 5:39 p.m.
    - The good news is that I didn't dance
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 1:41 a.m.
      - The good news is that I didn't dance
        Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 9:08 a.m.
        
        The good news is that I didn't dance
        gudgen -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 1:58 p.m.
- Rollout
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 15 November 2015, at 8:33 p.m.
  - Rollout
    hominid -- Sunday, 15 November 2015, at 9:14 p.m.
  - Rollout
    konstantin -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 9:55 a.m.
    - Rollout
      neilkaz -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 7:32 p.m.
      - Rollout with Blue owning the cube
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 9:09 p.m.
        
        Rollout with Blue owning the cube
        Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 10:02 p.m.
        
        Rollout with Blue owning the cube
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 18 November 2015, at 3:21 a.m.
    - Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 12:34 a.m.
  - Rollout
    Chase -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 1:29 p.m.
  - XGR+/XGR+ Rollout
    Chase -- Monday, 16 November 2015, at 7:35 p.m.
  - Variants (four best plays)
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 17 November 2015, at 8:34 p.m.
    - Variants (four best plays)
      hominid -- Wednesday, 18 November 2015, at 3:14 p.m.

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