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Too good

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 15 January 2016, at 5:36 p.m.

In Response To: Too good (David Rockwell)

I don't have a rollout. But, this variant position looks borderline too good to me.

Interesting. I was naively going by the XGR++ evaluation of .984 shown below. But I'm willing to take your word for it, no rollout needed. You study these positions and have a better idea how far to move the needle to account for XG's misevaluations.

I would have taken a shake. White doesn't have an easy equalizing sequence.

Perhaps I misunderstand. It seems to me that there are plenty of (Blue, White) sequences that make White the DMP-favorite (thereby giving her a take). Even if we give Blue his roll of 53 (he could certainly roll worse), I believe White becomes a favorite after any entering doublets.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 158
2 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----EBB-a-eD---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:2:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 54.11% (G:15.65% B:0.59%) 55.23% (G:16.03% B:0.65%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 45.89% (G:10.02% B:0.43%) 44.77% (G:10.14% B:0.44%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.395 +1.209
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.984 (-0.016)
Double/Take:+1.209 (+0.209)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

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