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BGonline.org Forums
'Deliberate Learning' XG confusion
Posted By: Albert Steg
Date: Wednesday, 24 February 2016, at 2:55 a.m.
Hey all — hoping for a little further guidance in proper use of XG. Today I happened upon Phil Simborg’s “Deliberate Practice” video on Facebook and thought I’d try out using XG in this way, with the position he used for illustration. All went well as I cycled through all the dice rolls, and I took some notes on the various positions. Here’s the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80ASxnr000g
So, then I took the second approach he suggested, playing out the position multiple times in ‘Coach’ mode, trying to get a feel for ‘what’s going on’ in the position. After while I got the feeling I was getting different results in these ‘Play from Position’ sessions than I was getting from the original XGRoller++ evaluations, so I went back to setting up the position with various rolls to play . . . but now I’m finding the results I’m getting are very different from what I recalled getting before, and what Phil refers to as ‘correct’ plays in the video. For example, at 11:45 in the video he shows that XG likes the hit with 65, yielding equity of +.370 (.090 better than playing safe to the 5 pt).
. . . but when I set up the position with this roll I’m getting something wildly different: the hitting play coming in slightly second place with an equity of only .087. Huh?
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 81Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 103
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BaBBCB------B--A-Accccb--:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:1 Blue to play 65
1. XG Roller++ 16/5 eq: +0.090
Player:
Opponent:55.84% (G:1.36% B:0.02%)
44.16% (G:4.02% B:0.08%)2. XG Roller++ 13/2* eq: +0.087 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:63.46% (G:2.05% B:0.03%)
36.54% (G:19.36% B:0.90%)3. 3-ply 18/12 16/11 eq: -0.010 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:53.12% (G:1.60% B:0.04%)
46.88% (G:8.76% B:0.07%)4. 3-ply 18/13 16/10 eq: -0.058 (-0.148)
Player:
Opponent:49.46% (G:1.23% B:0.04%)
50.54% (G:5.97% B:0.03%)5. 2-ply 18/7 eq: -0.146 (-0.235)
Player:
Opponent:48.71% (G:1.58% B:0.03%)
51.29% (G:13.47% B:0.11%)eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I’ve got the cube where it belongs, on my side, have it in ‘Unlimited Games’ mode with jacoby and Beavers checked, the pip counts match . . . I can’t for the life of me see what I’ve got wrong here. I went and made dinner, re-started XG and tried again and I’m still utterly baffled, yet the must be some major thing I’ve got wrong? Any suggestions? I'm losing my mind here.
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