| |
BGonline.org Forums
Ed O'Laughlin 2016 Streak
Posted By: sita In Response To: Ed O'Laughlin 2016 Streak (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 14 June 2016, at 6:53 p.m.
The short term in backgammon is much longer than most think
I wrote a program to simulate tournaments. The list below is a sample run. In this list you see the overall money result of the same 64 players playing multiple single elimination tournaments. The winner gets 50%, second 25%, 3rd/4th 12.5%. Ok, that's not overly realistic. The ELO difference between player0, and player 63 is 400. For the players in between, the ELO is distributed linear. The list below are the net winnings after 50 simulations.
Players 0, 6, 11, ran bad, player 13 even lost money without rake. Player 3 is way too good, and player 31 must falsely think he is a genius. As well as maybe 29. After 50 tournaments! Admittedly, with quite a harsh payout structure.
After seeing the results of this program back when I wrote it, I was quite a bit shocked. I concluded that the long run is typically longer than a lifetime of tournament play for an amateur.
0 86,00
1 158,00
2 126,00
3 206,00
4 166,00
5 118,00
6 54,00
7 118,00
8 86,00
9 158,00
10 134,00
11 38,00
12 102,00
13 -2,00
14 62,00
15 54,00
16 30,00
17 86,00
18 86,00
19 -10,00
20 -26,00
21 54,00
22 -42,00
23 46,00
24 62,00
25 38,00
26 -10,00
27 38,00
28 22,00
29 94,00
30 22,00
31 110,00
32 70,00
33 -10,00
34 62,00
35 -34,00
36 -42,00
37 -10,00
38 -18,00
39 -42,00
40 -10,00
41 -2,00
42 38,00
43 -10,00
44 -42,00
45 -18,00
46 -2,00
47 -10,00
48 -42,00
49 -26,00
50 -50,00
51 -42,00
52 -34,00
53 -34,00
54 -42,00
55 -34,00
56 -18,00
57 -34,00
58 -34,00
59 -26,00
60 -50,00
61 -34,00
62 -34,00
63 -50,00
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.