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BGonline.org Forums
Question about match strategy for Grandmasters
Posted By: Rick Janowski In Response To: Question about match strategy for Grandmasters (Phil Simborg)
Date: Tuesday, 9 August 2016, at 2:08 p.m.
When considering skill adjustments it is necessary to consider how much equity the inferior opponent will actually obtain rather than how much XG would get. Consequently, there should be less adjustments in complicated games (with contact) in comparison to races and bearoffs. In contact positions, weaker players are very often early droppers and late doublers, from my experience through play and by observation of match analysis results. Weak players often have very weak cubes and doubling very late gives them less opportunity to blunder.
Most players are not able to make effective skill adjustments commensurate with the actual or indicated skill differential; they tend to have an on/off switch rather than a sliding scale - treating all inferior opponents as though they are massively inferior. Such a blanker approach is more likely to lead to real errors in equity rather than making no adjustment.
If somehow an optimal skill-adjustment could be found for a wide range of opponents, I doubt very much that the trade-off in PR would be more than 0.3 (worth about 10 Elo rating points, i.e., fairly insignificant). In comparison, the crude on/off switch approach is likely to double or triple the trade-off in PR)
Almost without exception, when a player excuses a poor PR performance by saying they "played to win" interrogation of the analyse match files will reveal a litany of embarrassing blunders caused by momentary ineptitude rather than sophisticated thinking.
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