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Help interpreting an XG Rollout

Posted By: Albert Steg
Date: Friday, 23 September 2016, at 8:54 p.m.

This position emerged in a recent Boston chouette. The Team reckoned that giving White his whole roll to have his way with an assortment of Black blots was not The Way to Go, so after weighing a few different hitting options we went with 6/5 6/3*. After all, the 20 dancing numbers are enormously helpful. Rolling out the position back home, it was interesting to see XG preferred hitting 4/3* with 13/10 . . . but then puzzling to find that second place went to the wide-open 13/9, and then back and forth between various hitting or non-hitting options. it seems counter-intuitive to me that the hitting plays wouldn't cluster together somewhat more, especially given the efficacy of the dancing numbers (or, perhaps the unacceptable cost of breaking down a 5-point board).

Is this position just too weird for XG to be giving a reliable account of? Or can more discerning minds see patterns or factors that account for this ordering of plays?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBBB----AbBbb-cAcAa-a--:1:-1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout113/10 4/3* eq: +0.279
Player:
Opponent:		59.80% (G:38.06% B:0.79%)
40.20% (G:14.23% B:2.38%)		Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.267...+0.291) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout113/9eq: +0.209 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:		58.15% (G:32.76% B:0.70%)
41.85% (G:11.92% B:1.45%)		Conf.: ą 0.010 (+0.199...+0.218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout111/8 4/3* eq: +0.191 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:		57.81% (G:34.48% B:0.39%)
42.19% (G:14.19% B:1.39%)		Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.179...+0.202) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds
4.Rollout111/7eq: +0.172 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		58.30% (G:27.33% B:0.35%)
41.70% (G:10.31% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ą 0.009 (+0.162...+0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
5.Rollout16/5 6/3* eq: +0.167 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:		57.84% (G:30.68% B:0.37%)
42.16% (G:12.85% B:1.13%)		Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.157...+0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds
6.Rollout113/10 11/10eq: +0.161 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		57.87% (G:27.42% B:0.51%)
42.13% (G:10.78% B:0.70%)		Conf.: ą 0.009 (+0.151...+0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
7.Rollout111/10 6/3* eq: +0.127 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent:		56.28% (G:32.22% B:0.44%)
43.72% (G:14.31% B:1.57%)		Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.117...+0.138) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds
8.Rollout16/3* 4/3eq: +0.117 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:		55.80% (G:33.79% B:0.52%)
44.20% (G:15.39% B:1.72%)		Conf.: ą 0.012 (+0.105...+0.129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 25 seconds
9.2-ply4/1 4/3* eq: +0.064 (-0.215)
Player:
Opponent:		54.78% (G:25.75% B:0.25%)
45.22% (G:12.29% B:0.89%)
10.2-ply6/3* 3/2eq: +0.064 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:		54.66% (G:26.67% B:0.17%)
45.34% (G:13.03% B:1.14%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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