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BGonline.org Forums
Try for the pair?
Posted By: scotty In Response To: Try for the pair? (Jason Lee)
Date: Monday, 20 February 2017, at 4:30 a.m.
This is double match point. Winner takes all. The faint hope clause (blue doublets, and white fans) isn't going to win it very often.
Blue's winning chances are next to nil here, (i would guess about 10%) unless blue can get the 2nd checker back. Blue needs at least 7 checkers off before white re-enters a lone checker to have close to a 50% chance of winning the race.
Hoping for a lucky bearoff, (lots of white fans) is not going to win this position very many times. I think blue needs to get the second white checker on the bar, and perhaps be hit 3 or4 times to have the ammunition for containment of whites checkers.
5/o 2/o
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