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Try for the pair?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 20 February 2017, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: Try for the pair? (Jason Lee)

Although 6/1, 4/2 (holding the prime) is an option, it doesn't feel right. That's either a pessimistic play or an overly optimistic one.

After 5/0 we can finish with 5/3 or 2/0. In either case we're in pretty bad shape if opp rolls a 5. But if he rolls a deuce we'd much rather he stay on the bar than hit us, even though after hitting he has work to do.

One big consideration when bearing off against an opp with lots of checkers already off, and on the bar, is being able to hold your board for as long as possible. If you clear the 5-point this turn, not only do you have a five point board, but you are in good shape to keep it for at least another roll.

Opp's blot on his acepoint is a juicy target, but it's only 30% to get hit when Blue is sent reeling. I don't think that's enough incentive here.

5/0, 5/3

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