Awesome position, Paul! Please provide analysis . . .

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Awesome position, Paul! Please provide analysis . . .

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 26 March 2017, at 8:34 p.m.

In Response To: Awesome position, Paul! Please provide analysis . . . (Jeremy Bagai)

In lieu of "analysis" I offer the following variants.
Original position:

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87

Unlimited Game

pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBBBB-A---bB---c-bBea-b-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/6 eq: -0.200
Player:
Opponent: 36.08% (G:4.88% B:0.12%)
63.92% (G:3.68% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.205...-0.196) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/6 eq: -0.239 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 34.54% (G:3.93% B:0.11%)
65.46% (G:3.03% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.244...-0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 3/1(2) eq: -0.242 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 33.78% (G:2.82% B:0.06%)
66.22% (G:2.89% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.247...-0.236) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq: -0.243 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 34.20% (G:3.58% B:0.10%)
65.80% (G:2.95% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.247...-0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 50 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/4 eq: -0.247 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent: 34.00% (G:3.60% B:0.11%)
66.00% (G:3.01% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.251...-0.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 23 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 5/1(2) eq: -0.247 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 33.11% (G:2.85% B:0.05%)
66.89% (G:3.25% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.252...-0.242) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 51 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq: -0.249 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent: 33.88% (G:3.51% B:0.11%)
66.12% (G:3.12% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.253...-0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant 1

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 85

Unlimited Game

pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBBBB-A---bB---b-cBea-b-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 13/9 eq: -0.222
Player:
Opponent: 34.80% (G:2.87% B:0.10%)
65.20% (G:1.79% B:0.02%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.227...-0.217) - [36.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 13/11 8/6 eq: -0.223 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent: 34.87% (G:2.78% B:0.09%)
65.13% (G:1.72% B:0.02%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.228...-0.218) - [30.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 13 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 8/4 eq: -0.224 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent: 34.54% (G:2.69% B:0.08%)
65.46% (G:1.65% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.229...-0.219) - [20.4%]
Duration: 6 minutes 01 second
4. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/6 eq: -0.224 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent: 35.76% (G:4.89% B:0.16%)
64.24% (G:5.60% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.229...-0.219) - [13.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 13/11(2) eq: -0.243 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent: 33.94% (G:2.42% B:0.08%)
66.06% (G:0.86% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.248...-0.239) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 37 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 3/1(2) eq: -0.250 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 32.98% (G:2.27% B:0.07%)
67.02% (G:1.85% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.257...-0.244) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 49 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/6 eq: -0.263 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 33.46% (G:5.38% B:0.22%)
66.54% (G:4.61% B:0.06%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.269...-0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 01 second
8. Rollout¹ 8/4 3/1(2) eq: -0.264 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 32.81% (G:3.24% B:0.10%)
67.19% (G:3.50% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.268...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
9. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 8/6 3/1 eq: -0.267 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent: 32.92% (G:2.77% B:0.09%)
67.08% (G:3.18% B:0.09%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.272...-0.262) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds
10. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq: -0.269 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 33.09% (G:4.97% B:0.18%)
66.91% (G:4.49% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.274...-0.265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
11. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 8/6 5/3 eq: -0.271 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent: 32.41% (G:2.46% B:0.08%)
67.59% (G:2.44% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.276...-0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds
12. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 8/6 4/2 eq: -0.275 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent: 32.33% (G:2.42% B:0.08%)
67.67% (G:2.77% B:0.08%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.280...-0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 01 second

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant 2
This one helps illustrate that the swing on White's roll of 64 isn't that crucial a factor.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87

Unlimited Game

pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBBBB-A---bB---c-bBe-ba-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/6 eq: -0.199
Player:
Opponent: 36.48% (G:4.71% B:0.14%)
63.52% (G:4.35% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.203...-0.194) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 02 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/4 eq: -0.232 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 35.60% (G:4.41% B:0.13%)
64.40% (G:5.77% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.237...-0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/6 eq: -0.235 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 34.68% (G:4.02% B:0.11%)
65.32% (G:2.57% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.240...-0.230) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 39 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 8/4 3/1(2) eq: -0.238 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 33.90% (G:2.99% B:0.07%)
66.10% (G:2.71% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.244...-0.232) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 44 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq: -0.239 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 34.27% (G:3.59% B:0.09%)
65.73% (G:2.43% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.244...-0.234) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 41 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 13/11 8/6 eq: -0.241 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 33.51% (G:2.82% B:0.08%)
66.49% (G:0.90% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.246...-0.237) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 10 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/4 eq: -0.243 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent: 34.06% (G:3.68% B:0.10%)
65.94% (G:2.56% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.248...-0.238) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
8. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 13/9 eq: -0.244 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent: 33.47% (G:2.66% B:0.08%)
66.53% (G:0.81% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.249...-0.239) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
9. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq: -0.250 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent: 33.90% (G:3.46% B:0.08%)
66.10% (G:2.60% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.255...-0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant 3

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87

Unlimited Game

pip: 104
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-BBBBB--A---bB---c-bBea-b-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq: -0.180
Player:
Opponent: 36.41% (G:2.02% B:0.05%)
63.59% (G:1.60% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.185...-0.175) - [86.5%]
Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/6 eq: -0.185 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent: 36.65% (G:2.61% B:0.05%)
63.35% (G:2.62% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.190...-0.179) - [11.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 56 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/6 eq: -0.187 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent: 37.65% (G:5.06% B:0.09%)
62.35% (G:7.61% B:0.16%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.192...-0.182) - [2.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 16 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant 4
With more time, Blue is in no rush to break anchor.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87

Unlimited Game

pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBBBBA---bB---c-bBea-b-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 7/5 eq: -0.242
Player:
Opponent: 33.94% (G:4.28% B:0.12%)
66.06% (G:3.60% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.247...-0.237) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 36 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/6 7/1 eq: -0.258 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 32.64% (G:3.52% B:0.09%)
67.36% (G:3.66% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.263...-0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/1 eq: -0.270 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 32.31% (G:3.64% B:0.10%)
67.69% (G:3.99% B:0.07%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.275...-0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/6 eq: -0.273 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 33.73% (G:4.18% B:0.12%)
66.27% (G:6.08% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.278...-0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 53 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/2 eq: -0.281 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 32.63% (G:3.75% B:0.11%)
67.37% (G:4.25% B:0.06%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.285...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant 5
Perhaps surprisingly, adding another blot to White's board actually seems to narrow the equity differences among the top plays, and 20/16 8/4 emerges as a candidate.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 85

Unlimited Game

pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBBBB-A---bB---c-bBdaab-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/6 eq: -0.259
Player:
Opponent: 33.87% (G:4.68% B:0.13%)
66.13% (G:4.55% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.263...-0.255) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/16 8/4 eq: -0.272 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 33.47% (G:5.26% B:0.13%)
66.53% (G:6.34% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.276...-0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 37 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/6 eq: -0.280 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent: 32.98% (G:3.50% B:0.07%)
67.02% (G:2.88% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.284...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 36 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq: -0.284 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 32.49% (G:3.16% B:0.07%)
67.51% (G:2.64% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.288...-0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/4 eq: -0.286 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 32.45% (G:3.11% B:0.07%)
67.55% (G:2.68% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.290...-0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq: -0.289 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent: 32.24% (G:2.99% B:0.07%)
67.76% (G:2.70% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.293...-0.285) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 8/4 eq: -0.290 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 31.67% (G:2.17% B:0.06%)
68.33% (G:1.41% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.295...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
8. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 13/9 eq: -0.292 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 31.85% (G:2.27% B:0.06%)
68.15% (G:1.54% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.297...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 27 seconds
9. Rollout¹ 20/18(2) 13/11 8/6 eq: -0.293 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent: 31.75% (G:2.41% B:0.06%)
68.25% (G:1.49% B:0.01%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.298...-0.288) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 36 seconds
10. Rollout¹ 8/4 3/1(2) eq: -0.300 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 31.50% (G:2.59% B:0.05%)
68.50% (G:3.15% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.304...-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 42 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant 6
The top play of the rollout isn't a surprise here, but note that 20/14 8/6 is still not that far behind.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87

Unlimited Game

pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--ACBBB-A---bB---c-bBea-b-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 3/1 eq: -0.226
Player:
Opponent: 34.56% (G:4.01% B:0.13%)
65.44% (G:3.41% B:0.06%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.231...-0.221) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 05 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/2 eq: -0.251 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 33.76% (G:3.81% B:0.14%)
66.24% (G:3.29% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.255...-0.246) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 20/14 8/6 eq: -0.263 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent: 34.24% (G:4.85% B:0.13%)
65.76% (G:7.13% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.268...-0.258) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

Holding Game 22
Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 12:52 p.m.
- Holding Game 22
  John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 3:48 p.m.
- Holding Game 22
  Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 4:21 p.m.
- Holding Game 22
  Igor -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 5:00 p.m.
  - Holding Game 22
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 5:45 p.m.
- Holding Game 22
  scotty -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 9:32 p.m.
  - Holding Game 22
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 9:51 p.m.
- Holding Game 22
  Florin Popa -- Sunday, 26 February 2017, at 10:12 p.m.
- Rollout Result Posted With No Comment Other Than This
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 27 February 2017, at 1:25 a.m.
  - Rollout Result Posted With No Comment Other Than This
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 27 February 2017, at 1:41 a.m.
  - Rollout Result At Gammon Save
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 27 February 2017, at 7:37 p.m.
  - Awesome position, Paul! Please provide analysis . . .
    Jeremy Bagai -- Tuesday, 28 February 2017, at 1:24 a.m.
    - +1 *NM*
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 February 2017, at 4:56 p.m.
    - Awesome position, Paul! Please provide analysis . . .
      Stick -- Wednesday, 1 March 2017, at 9:53 a.m.
      - Awesome position, Paul! Please provide analysis . . .
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 1:36 a.m.
    - Awesome position, Paul! Please provide analysis . . .
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 26 March 2017, at 8:34 p.m.
- Holding Game 22
  Timothy Chow -- Monday, 27 February 2017, at 1:39 a.m.
- Holding Game 22
  hominid -- Monday, 27 February 2017, at 9:57 a.m.

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:
If necessary, enter your password below:
Password: