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BGonline.org Forums
Blitz Balance
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Blitz Balance (Albert Steg)
Date: Friday, 2 June 2017, at 3:38 a.m.
My primary heuristic for blitzing is that you should point, hit, build, and escape, in that order. Of course, like any heuristic, it has to be adjusted according to circumstances, but I have found it to be a very useful starting point.
"Point" means to make a new home-board point. You can't do that here, so the next priority is to hit. You can do that with 5/1*, so do it. Third in line is to build, meaning to move checkers closer on your side of the board. The three building plays here are 13/11, 10/8, and 8/6. I think most people can see that 8/6 is the most effective building play of these three. You've used up your dice so there's no need to consider the fourth item, escaping.
In this position, are there any factors that would incline one to reorder the usual list of priorities? The main one , which probably loomed large in your eyes (given what you played) is that White has a strong offensive formation herself. But that should not distract you from the fact that it's White who's on the ropes and not you! You have the stronger board, and White is on the bar. Your primary game plan is still to blitz. Say you hit loose 5/1* and White hits back with an ace. Big deal! You're still on roll against a three-point board while White is still on the bar against a three-point board. Given that the downside is not so bad while the upside is huge, hitting is still clearly indicated. (Now when I say "big deal," it's true that if you do play 8/6 5/1* and get hit back, then your blitzing chances suffer a lot, so continuing the blitz on your next roll with 6/1* isn't automatic. I'm not immediately sure how I would play 52 from the bar. Probably I'd still hit but it's not as automatic because I'm running out of ammunition for the blitz and I have three checkers behind White's prime.)
To the extent that you might consider defending yourself against White, you should be thinking about escaping rather than anchoring anyway. You're way ahead in the pip count and White's formation is more suited to priming than to blitzing. (Recognizing when your opponent has more priming potential or more attacking potential is a very important general skill, by the way, that has applicability in many, many positions.) This is why 22/18 8/6 ranks ahead of 24/22 10/6.
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