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Novi Lecture Help

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Wednesday, 28 June 2017, at 6:46 p.m.

This coming weekend in Michigan, John O'Hagan and I will be giving a lecture/quiz on O'Hagan's law of market losers. What I am wondering is what did good players use before O'Hagan's Law? How did you determine if you had enough market losers to double, other than just guessing from experience or doubling when you think it is getting close to a pass?

I remember Robertie's approach: if you were to roll a little better than average and your opponent were to roll a little worse than average, and that would result in a pass, you probably have a double as you would lose your market too much. Funny, it seems that would happen about 25 percent of the time, which is pretty much like O'Hagan's Law.

Robertie's Law would be fairly easy to apply in a race, since it is pretty simple to come up with a little better or worse than average roll, but in more complex positions with possible hits, escapes, and pointing numbers, finding the slightly better and worse than average rolls and estimating winning chances seems like a tough job over the board.

So I am looking for a little historical information that would help me better explain the importance and impact of O'Hagan's discovery.

Any thoughts?

Thanks.

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