        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 127 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--B---DbCB-BbB---bbbcb----:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/3 6/1 | eq: +0,209 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66,27% (G:1,18% B:0,02%)
33,73% (G:1,30% B:0,01%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 8/5 6/1 | eq: +0,205 (-0,003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66,10% (G:1,15% B:0,01%)
33,90% (G:1,23% B:0,01%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 11/8 11/6 | eq: +0,202 (-0,006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65,92% (G:1,16% B:0,02%)
34,08% (G:1,17% B:0,02%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 8/3 6/3 | eq: +0,190 (-0,019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65,55% (G:1,04% B:0,02%)
34,45% (G:1,37% B:0,02%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--B---DbCB-BeB---bbbb-----:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 8/5 6/1 | eq: +0,560 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80,39% (G:3,54% B:0,03%)
19,61% (G:1,36% B:0,04%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 6/3 6/1 | eq: +0,560 (0,000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80,45% (G:3,36% B:0,05%)
19,55% (G:1,39% B:0,04%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 8/3 6/3 | eq: +0,548 (-0,012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79,95% (G:3,35% B:0,04%)
20,05% (G:1,36% B:0,04%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 11/8 11/6 | eq: +0,532 (-0,029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79,15% (G:3,64% B:0,04%)
20,85% (G:1,44% B:0,04%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I thought that a closer race would argue against breaking the 11 point, since making the 3 could prepare for some sort of later contact (if we compare to that specific play), and if he caught up a bit in the race, blocking 44 would have value (OK, we cant hold the points for long...). In addition, I felt like picking up the 11 was a step in the direction of breaking contact, which we wanted more when up by a lot in the race.
However, it seems like keeping the 11 is a better way to break contact, as the gain on 52 42 is huge (obviously much bigger when the race is gin). I thought the 11p presented some inflexibility when we didn't roll a clearing number next turn, and was a point we needed to clear later anyway. Apparently, this argument is weaker.
I don't think race wastage is a big factor between these two plays - if we let him respond by 55 (breaking contact) in the closer-race position, our chances are similar after the two plays.