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XG 'Book' Moves - authoritative?

Posted By: Albert Steg
Date: Wednesday, 11 October 2017, at 2:28 a.m.

Inspired by a recent Simborg video promoting 'deliberate practice' on early-game checker plays, I'm working my way through a series of third-roll scenarios, and occasionally finding XG offers up 'book' plays that appear totally out of whack with neighboring rollout results. Here's an example:




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 162
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---b-db-A-A-:0:0:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 13

1.XG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: +0.041
Player:
Opponent:		50.83% (G:15.10% B:0.73%)
49.17% (G:14.29% B:0.64%)
2.XG Roller++24/21 22/21eq: -0.027 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		48.46% (G:10.68% B:0.33%)
51.54% (G:9.32% B:0.32%)
3.XG Roller++10/7 8/7eq: -0.116 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:		47.44% (G:12.07% B:0.53%)
52.56% (G:15.35% B:0.57%)
4.XG Roller++24/23 13/10eq: -0.201 (-0.242)
Player:
Opponent:		45.67% (G:11.86% B:0.57%)
54.33% (G:16.86% B:0.67%)
5.Book122/18eq: -0.366 (-0.407)
Player:
Opponent:		42.23% (G:10.51% B:0.63%)
57.77% (G:19.40% B:1.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.371...-0.361)
1 Generated by David Rockwell on 4/30/2010 using eXtreme Gammon 1.13
31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2490631
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I find this really hard to understand - was the earlier version of XG so limited that it favored a play that the newer version regards as a mega-whopping .407 blunder? And is this is simply an artifact of past robotic follies, what am I to make of the 'book' plays I see in XG in general?

To make it simpler -- what is the current sense of authority for the XG 'book' plays? I notice that when I am viewing results the normal XG window, I don't see the footnotes as to the origins of 'Book' results -- they just "look" authoritative and absolute.

. . . so are 'Book' plays in XG to be trusted as authoritative by the best current wisdom?

Not trying to find fault, just trying to understand my tools.

Albert

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