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Racing adjustments and comparison rules, and Nack57

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 13 November 2017, at 4:38 a.m.

In Response To: Racing adjustments and comparison rules, and Nack57 (Bob Koca)

I think I saw once that the wastage for a long single checker race is about 5.5. Do you know it more accurately? For a long low wastage real race the wastage is slightly more than 7. Does it make sense then that the adjustment to a real race form the one checker model would be about 1.5(subtracting 31.5 instead of 33) or is there more to consider?

Those two numbers (7+ and 5.5) would be the only relevances, as far as I know. If you happen to remember (or find) the source of that statement (you think you saw), I'd like to read what it states exactly, and how it derived that "about 5.5" differential. Also, where did you get the "slightly more than 7"? (Not that I dispute it, but it's one of the two pieces of the reconciliation to verify.)

For ease of use, I picked the closest integer that fit step 1, which was 33. That replicates all take-point values in the GST except for a leader count of 111 (formula yields 12.49 which rounds to 12 instead of 13). At the risk of overly satisfying minutia, if 32.75– is used instead, Nack57 yields just over 12.5, and even 111 falls into line.

Neil's rollout results suggest that the traditional GST's reported take points are slightly low and that if the GST is modified to reflect his set of rollouts then (for Nack57) 32 is actually the closest integer fit, and that for a non-integer 31.75 (give or take 0.1?) would be more accurate still.

Neil's many rollouts are based on pretty but real positions. If the post/article you thought you saw hypothesized its estimate a bit wrongly (or was based on a set of rollout positions with not-low-enough wastage and/or with too small a sample of positions and/or with too few trials that succumbed to variance), that could account for the residue. That is, the "about 5.5" difference you recall is likely an underestimate of 0.3 or so.

Nack

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