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Run, hit once or twice with this 65? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 23 November 2017, at 4:09 p.m.

In Response To: Run, hit once or twice with this 65? -- ROLLOUT and VARIANTS (christian munk-christensen)

I am surprised by variant 2. I am not sure I fully understand what's going on now.


Maybe isolating the 5 will help. Try this: Widen your window until you can look at the two diagrams below, side by side.

The original position is implied on the left. Variant 2 is implied on the right. In both cases, the 6 (as 8/2*) has already been played, and just a 5 remains to be played.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
5 point match
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaA-BBD-B---bB---c-bbbBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Blue to play a lone 5
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
5 point match
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaA-BCC-B---bB---c-bbbBb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Blue to play a lone 5


On the left, 6/1* is a much better 5 (beats 13/8 by .048) because there is an extra spare on the 6pt.
On the right, 6/1* is tied (loses to 13/8 by .002) because the spares are already diversified.

6/1* puts a second checker on the roof, but risks getting hit back with 6 more numbers against a four-point board than does 13/8. The 6/1* vs 13/8 tradeoff is positive on the left. That tradeoff is only breakeven on the right because 13/8 enjoys a 6+5 (rather than 6+6) distribution.

Nack

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