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Run, hit once or twice with this 65?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 22 November 2017, at 10:37 p.m.

In Response To: Run, hit once or twice with this 65? (John O'Hagan)

I butchered this 65 in the after tournament event against Leyla Zaloutskaya. I chose the DMP play of running 22/11 but the double hit play is clearly better. My play wins 2% more games but it's much worse in terms of net gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
5 point match
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-BBD-C---bB---c-bbbBb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout18/2* 6/1* eq: +0.137
Player:
Opponent:		51.54% (G:22.95% B:0.43%)
48.46% (G:16.97% B:0.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.122...+0.151) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout122/11eq: +0.076 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		53.55% (G:16.96% B:0.94%)
46.45% (G:18.87% B:0.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.063...+0.088) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout113/2* eq: +0.064 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:		49.84% (G:19.17% B:0.77%)
50.16% (G:15.37% B:0.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.050...+0.078) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
4.2-ply13/7 6/1* eq: -0.103 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:		47.16% (G:15.86% B:0.42%)
52.84% (G:20.78% B:1.13%)
5.2-ply22/16 6/1* eq: -0.119 (-0.255)
Player:
Opponent:		49.31% (G:15.97% B:0.51%)
50.69% (G:24.30% B:1.29%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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