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Go directly to BK...do not pass Go, do not collect $200

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 3:18 p.m.

In Response To: Atlanta LC Match w/Neil - Game 2 + (Stick)

Oops...Neil..don't forget to tie the donkey you rode in on, to the hitching post outside.

When I make a cube error as bad as this pass, it is useful to go over what happened to cause such a bad decision. First of all, I initially thought it was a take, but being so far down in pips and not really ready had me soon thinking that it was a close money pass. At this score, I know a few things. 1) My cubeless TP is higher than for money (g11 28.8%) 2) My recube vig is huge...opp TP is gammonless 33.3%. 3) Stick's gammons still help him. (GV .45 per g11)

Factoring in all this and noting that holding games when far behind in the race often don't have efficient cubes since you are far into market loss when you hit, would a close pass for money based on G losses be a bare pass here? Finally, I was undecided and in the end passed deciding to see if I could win from 3-0.

However, I screwed up a couple things. 1) This is a .93 money take (I had thought 1.02 pass) and 2) MOST importantly I have lots more recube vig than in a more normal holding game since a shot is often coming quickly and since when I do hit it, I am often not close to "gin" since my board isn't crushing yet. Also when I do recube, any G I win by luck ends the match and any I lose after hitting when Stick jokers me a couple times escaping, don't count. ie I have somewhat more recube vig for money in this type of holding game than in a simple basic one. But at score, I have MUCH more recube vig than for money in the type of holding game where a shot is often quick.

The score (after 1 game) is: Neil 0, Stick 2 (match to 5 points)

Move number 16: Stick doubles to 2

Neil	167
Stick	111
Position ID: WGthwCGMdw8MAA Match ID: cBGgAAAAEAAA

• Neil rejects

Alert: wrong pass ( -0.2768)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5271	(Money: +0.5958)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7232
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2768
3.	No double	+0.7088	-0.0144
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6890 0.2628 0.0130 - 0.3110 0.0554 0.0026 +0.5271 +0.7088 Standard error 0.0012 0.0028 0.0013 - 0.0012 0.0008 0.0004 0.0036 0.0076 Player Neil owns 2-cube 0.6941 0.2954 0.0199 - 0.3059 0.0539 0.0055 +1.1358 +0.7232 Standard error 0.0013 0.0035 0.0018 - 0.0013 0.0010 0.0010 0.0074 0.0100
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3152 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858520238 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: Neil 0, Stick 0

Move number 3: Stick on roll, cube decision?

Neil	167
Stick	111
Position ID: WGthwCGMdw8MAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Stick doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5723
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9297
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0703
3.	No double	+0.8461	-0.0837
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6951 0.2317 0.0034 - 0.3049 0.0515 0.0015 +0.5723 +0.8461 Standard error 0.0007 0.0009 0.0002 - 0.0007 0.0005 0.0001 0.0018 0.0046 Player Neil owns 2-cube 0.7021 0.2331 0.0030 - 0.2979 0.0519 0.0019 +1.1730 +0.9297 Standard error 0.0010 0.0012 0.0003 - 0.0010 0.0006 0.0001 0.0047 0.0067
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
4818 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858150079 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Next rollout will be for money with Stick's 14 pt shifted to the 13 and I suspect a close pass now.

Messages In This Thread

• Atlanta LC Match w/Neil - Game 2 +
  Stick -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 2:12 p.m.
  • Go directly to BK...do not pass Go, do not collect $200
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 3:18 p.m.
    • Go directly to BK...do not pass Go, do not collect $200
      Coolrey -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 5:25 p.m.
      • Go directly to BK...do not pass Go, do not collect $200
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 6:52 p.m.
        • Excellence of Execution
          David Rockwell -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 7:32 p.m.
        • Go directly to BK...do not pass Go, do not collect $200
          Coolrey -- Friday, 8 May 2009, at 12:24 p.m.
    • Short money RO with 13 pt instead of 14
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 6:06 p.m.
      • Short money RO with 13 pt instead of 14
        rew -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 7:58 p.m.
        • Short money RO with 13 pt instead of 14
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 7 May 2009, at 7:59 p.m.