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A few random XG/GNU rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 29 June 2009, at 12:00 p.m.

In Response To: eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview (Stick)

After having XG play itself on XG Roller level and run the games through GNU I took the few plays where the bots disagreed and performed rollouts of the position on each both. Below I am simply pasting the rollouts of a few positions in case anyone finds them interesting. I may post more of these. An extremely small sample to say the least so no real conclusions can be drawn.

The computer I'm running these rollouts on is a quad core, 2.67GHz, 64 bit running Vista on 4 GB's of RAM system.

XG played 20/14(2) 8/2(2) on XG Roller.

gnubg	138
user	133
Position ID: 4HuDAwJsboOAEQ Match ID: EQEbAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	20/14(2) 13/1	+0.0727
			0.5758 0.1513 0.0021 - 0.4242 0.0614 0.0025 +0.2410 +0.0727 0.0033 0.0055 0.0006 - 0.0033 0.0026 0.0007 0.0078 0.0118
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			218 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862311100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	20/14(2) 8/2(2)	+0.0197 ( -0.0530)
			0.5524 0.1755 0.0012 - 0.4476 0.0635 0.0030 +0.2151 +0.0197 0.0035 0.0051 0.0007 - 0.0035 0.0024 0.0003 0.0088 0.0142
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862311100 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

1. Rollout¹ 20/14(2) 13/1 eq:+0.059

Player : 57.06% (G:14.00% B:0.27%)

Opponent: 42.94% (G:5.95% B:0.29%)

Confidence: ± 0.010 (+0.049Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/14(2) 8/2(2) eq:+0.023 (-0.035)

Player : 55.31% (G:16.70% B:0.30%)

Opponent: 44.69% (G:6.21% B:0.34%)

Confidence: ± 0.014 (+0.009Duration: 26 minutes 07 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

XG played 24/21 8/5(2) 6/3 on XG Roller

gnubg	150
user	147
Position ID: 4HPwDQCYz8IBMA Match ID: MIENAFAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/21 8/5(2) 6/3	+0.1164
			0.5213 0.1480 0.0032 - 0.4787 0.0558 0.0020 +0.1360 +0.1164 0.0008 0.0012 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0008 0.0001 0.0020 0.0058
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			3248 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862320502 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/18(2)	+0.1108 ( -0.0056)
			0.5378 0.0214 0.0006 - 0.4622 0.0140 0.0007 +0.0830 +0.1108 0.0006 0.0006 0.0001 - 0.0006 0.0004 0.0001 0.0014 0.0026
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			3249 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862320502 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

1. Rollout¹ 24/18(2) eq:+0.137

Player : 54.60% (G:2.11% B:0.04%)

Opponent: 45.40% (G:1.23% B:0.05%)

Confidence: ± 0.006 (+0.131Duration: 1 hour 41 minutes 56 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/5(2) 6/3 eq:+0.107 (-0.030)

Player : 51.83% (G:14.11% B:0.33%)

Opponent: 48.17% (G:5.59% B:0.24%)

Confidence: ± 0.009 (+0.098Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes 53 seconds

¹ 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

XG said D/P on XG Roller

Move number 2: user on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	107
user	94
Position ID: 1nYLAAbG3h0BAA Match ID: cAkAAFAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5585
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0345	+0.0345
3.	No double	+0.9243	-0.0757
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7751 0.0110 0.0002 - 0.2249 0.0027 0.0000 +0.5585 +0.9243 Standard error 0.0010 0.0010 0.0000 - 0.0010 0.0002 0.0000 0.0021 0.0053 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.7879 0.0099 0.0000 - 0.2121 0.0015 0.0000 +1.1685 +1.0345 Standard error 0.0015 0.0013 0.0002 - 0.0015 0.0003 0.0000 0.0063 0.0083
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
224 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862618498 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Analyzed in Rollout Player Winning Chances: 78.49% (G: 1.53% B: 0.02%) Opponent Winning Chances: 21.51% (G: 0.31% B: 0.01%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.570, Double=+1.165

Cubefull Equities:

No Double: +0.934 (-0.066)

Double/Take: +1.059 (+0.059)

Double/Drop: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.928Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 13 minutes 32 seconds

---

XG played 18/12 6/3 on XG Roller

gnubg	124
user	127
Position ID: dvYIADTM3gbgAA Match ID: EQEPAFAAGAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	18/12 6/3	+0.8335
			0.8429 0.2134 0.0115 - 0.1571 0.0214 0.0007 +0.8887 +0.8335 0.0007 0.0013 0.0004 - 0.0007 0.0005 0.0001 0.0020 0.0025
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862328738 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	18/9	+0.8331 ( -0.0004)
			0.8406 0.2286 0.0132 - 0.1594 0.0308 0.0011 +0.8911 +0.8331 0.0008 0.0013 0.0004 - 0.0008 0.0005 0.0001 0.0022 0.0027
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862328738 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

1. Rollout¹ 18/9 eq:+0.836

Player : 83.66% (G:23.84% B:1.57%)

Opponent: 16.34% (G:3.36% B:0.13%)

Confidence: ± 0.007 (+0.829Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes 32 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 18/12 6/3 eq:+0.830 (-0.006)

Player : 83.69% (G:22.42% B:1.48%)

Opponent: 16.31% (G:2.52% B:0.11%)

Confidence: ± 0.006 (+0.824Duration: 54 minutes 27 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 3 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Messages In This Thread

• eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
  Stick -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 11:17 a.m.
  • Comparison Link
    Stick -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 11:32 a.m.
  • A few random XG/GNU rollouts
    Stick -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 12:00 p.m.
  • eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
    phil Simborg -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 1:02 p.m.
    • eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
      Mislav Radica -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 1:44 p.m.
    • eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
      Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 12:56 p.m.
  • eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
    Marty Storer -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 5:39 p.m.
    • eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
      Kenny Nissen -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 9:03 a.m.
  • eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 3:15 p.m.
    • eXtreme Gammon - Review/Overview
      nixo -- Wednesday, 19 August 2009, at 3:21 p.m.