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65 to play
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 65 to play (Adam Versaw)
Date: Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 8:10 p.m.
Running out with 21/10 is clear with the 6.
It is unusual that, with only a three-point board, hitting on the 1pt with the last 6pt spare is right. But this is certainly a case it which it might be right, in order to deflect White from extending her blockade (making her 4pt or 3pt) with 15 numbers (or 16 when double 3s is included). After 6/1*, Blue is hit back with 14 numbers (2 of which hit twice), so it's a difficult tradeoff to assess.
If Blue plays 15/10, White should surely not break her 18pt loosely to hit (and some of those five-prime anyway -- hitting would be terrible), so that leaves only 7 shots (63 53 32 33). Still, the blockade-extenders plus hitters sum to 15 + 7 = 22 numbers, which is why 6/1* is so tempting in spite of the shudder Blue might feel in making the play. There's no direct cover, but if White fans Blue can tempo-hit on the 12pt with a playable game even if White then enters/hits with an ace.
I don't know if 21/10 6/1* is right, but I'm always working to shed my bias against ugly-looking plays, so I'll go with that. It reminds me of a missed play with a 32 (failing to correctly hit on the 1pt having covers but only a two-point board, when Opp was poised to make a fifth point in his prime) that Paul Magriel said everyone overlooked, from one of his matches with Meyburg in the 90s, so if I am ridiculed I can blame it on Paul.
There is a third play, 21/10 13/8, which is better for distribution but looks wrong here. This time (as she wouldn't have to be expose the blot on her 18pt) I assume White will hit rather than make her 4pt with 43 31 -- and 33 does both. Adding in 63 53 32 21 44, that makes 14 shots, only 4 of which I would call duplicated. By contrast, 21/15 leaves only 7 shots (as mentioned), so I have to eliminate 21/10 13/8 in direct comparison.
Nack
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