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Huge varience in your two RO's running with a 9 at GS

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 1 January 2010, at 6:14 p.m.

In Response To: Open Poll (Stick)

Running with 63 ..46k

24/15 -0.2748 ( -0.0047) 0.5009 0.1888 0.0298 - 0.4991 0.1383 0.0130 -0.2748 -0.2748 0.0004 0.0011 0.0005 - 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 0.0013 0.0013

Running with 54 ..31k

24/15 -0.2594 ( -0.0170) 0.4999 0.1879 0.0244 - 0.5001 0.1295 0.0092 -0.2594 -0.2594 0.0006 0.0013 0.0006 - 0.0006 0.0007 0.0003 0.0019 0.0019

The two plays are the same, the only difference in RO settings is seed, although the top RO is 50% longer, and we see nearly a 10 std dev difference in results ?!? The difference in G losts between 54R and 63R is statistically shocking.

If we combine the two results properly weighted we get ((3 x -.2748)+ (2 x -.2594))/5 =-0.26864 which makes 63R seem a tad better than 63S and makes 54S super clear.

The opening 63 at GS will soon find its way into my 4 ply XG RO plans although unless it is clear to run, I will split vs anyone but a top Giant since I think splitting is more complicated.

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