Rollout

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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 18 January 2010, at 9:23 p.m.

In Response To: Toughest 52 of my life (Stick)

I won't hide my disappointment in the plays being so close. (less than 1% MWC between the first best play and the fifth best play) With the amount of time I spent on this OtB I'd have liked a bigger difference for all the mental anguish I went through just to beat this donkey.
My play, bar/20 18/16 was ahead after 10k but slipped after 15k. At this point I won't extend the rollout any further because the top 2 plays will remain the top 2 and the rest should remain the rest. I had planned on giving my analysis but it seems like so much work now, esp. for such a small difference, that I'm passing unless someone really wants to hear me babble on.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 181

1 point match

pip: 161
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--aabACBC--AbBb--cAcAa---A:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:1:10
to play 52

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 5/3* eq: +0.090
Player:
Opponent: 54.49% (G:21.34% B:3.18%)
45.51% (G:13.02% B:1.79%) Conf: ą 0.003 (+0.087...+0.093)
Duration: 12 hours 14 minutes 39 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 18/16 eq: +0.086 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent: 54.31% (G:20.12% B:3.14%)
45.69% (G:14.51% B:1.99%) Conf: ą 0.003 (+0.083...+0.089)
Duration: 12 hours 41 minutes 17 seconds
3. Rollout² Bar/20 7/5 eq: +0.077 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 53.83% (G:22.72% B:4.19%)
46.17% (G:13.82% B:1.90%) Conf: ą 0.004 (+0.073...+0.081)
Duration: 5 hours 21 minutes 08 seconds
4. Rollout² Bar/18 eq: +0.075 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 53.76% (G:19.11% B:2.80%)
46.24% (G:15.76% B:2.38%) Conf: ą 0.004 (+0.071...+0.079)
Duration: 5 hours 01 minute 28 seconds
5. Rollout² Bar/20 13/11 eq: +0.074 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 53.68% (G:19.87% B:3.24%)
46.32% (G:15.14% B:1.96%) Conf: ą 0.004 (+0.070...+0.078)
Duration: 4 hours 59 minutes 52 seconds

¹ 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

² 9723 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Messages In This Thread

Toughest 52 of my life
Stick -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 12:49 p.m.
- Toughest 52 of my life
  Petter Bengtsson -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 1:10 p.m.
- Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
  Seth -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 3:00 p.m.
  - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
    Bill Riles -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 3:42 p.m.
    - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 4:54 p.m.
      - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        neilkaz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 5:15 p.m.
        
        Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 6:59 p.m.
        
        Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Seth -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
      - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Bill Riles -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 8:21 p.m.
  - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
    Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 5:51 p.m.
  - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
    Joe Russell -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 9:29 p.m.
  - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
    Stick -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 9:49 p.m.
    - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Bill Riles -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
      - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Stick -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 10:59 p.m.
      - I know what the worst roll at the NY Metro was.
        Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 11:39 p.m.
    - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Chiva Tafazzoli -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 1:46 a.m.
  - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
    Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 1:39 p.m.
    - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 2:14 p.m.
      - Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Rich Munitz -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:40 p.m.
        
        Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:40 p.m.
        
        Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 6:46 p.m.
- Toughest 52 of my life
  Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 4:19 p.m.
  - Toughest 52 of my life
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 4:42 p.m.
    - Toughest 52 of my life
      Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 5:51 p.m.
  - Both Five Points?
    Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 7:39 p.m.
    - Both Five Points?
      Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
  - Toughest 52 of my life
    Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:43 p.m.
- Toughest 52 of my life
  Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 12:53 a.m.
- Toughest 52 of my life
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
  - Toughest 52 of my life
    Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:39 a.m.
    - Toughest 52 of my life
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:21 a.m.
      - Toughest 52 of my life
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:26 a.m.
        
        Toughest 52 of my life
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:27 a.m.
        
        Toughest 52 of my life
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:30 a.m.
        
        Toughest 52 of my life
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:18 p.m.
    - Toughest 52 of my life
      Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:23 p.m.
    - Toughest 52 of my life
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 3:54 p.m.
      - Toughest 52 of my life
        Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
- Toughest 52 of my life
  christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:55 a.m.
- Rollout
  Stick -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 9:23 p.m.
  - Rollout
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 12:16 a.m.
    - Rollout
      Stick -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 12:59 a.m.
  - Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 11:00 p.m.

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