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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 11:00 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

I am interested in hearing your analysis. I do not believe that the small difference in equities means that the analysis is not useful. I made a similar point a little while ago when someone suggested that a problem Jason Lee posted was "a useless problem" because the top two plays were very close. In fact, positions where two very different plays evaluate to almost the same thing make the best kind of reference positions. The important thing is to understand what factors argue in favor of Play A and what factors argue in favor of Play B. A position where the factors exactly (or almost exactly) balance out is valuable because then you can deduce which play will be best if the position changes slightly in this way or that way.

Since this position is complicated, there are many factors to consider, and I'm sure there are some that you considered which other readers did not. This is the instructive part, more so than just the raw equity numbers which anyone with a bot can generate themselves.

Messages In This Thread

• Toughest 52 of my life
  Stick -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 12:49 p.m.
  • Toughest 52 of my life
    Petter Bengtsson -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 1:10 p.m.
  • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
    Seth -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 3:00 p.m.
    • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Bill Riles -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 3:42 p.m.
      • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 4:54 p.m.
        • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 5:15 p.m.
          • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
            Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 6:59 p.m.
          • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
            Seth -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
        • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
          Bill Riles -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 8:21 p.m.
    • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 5:51 p.m.
    • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Joe Russell -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 9:29 p.m.
    • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Stick -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 9:49 p.m.
      • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Bill Riles -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
        • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
          Stick -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 10:59 p.m.
        • I know what the worst roll at the NY Metro was.
          Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 11:39 p.m.
      • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Chiva Tafazzoli -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 1:46 a.m.
    • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
      Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 1:39 p.m.
      • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 2:14 p.m.
        • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
          Rich Munitz -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:40 p.m.
          • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
            Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:40 p.m.
          • Question: What roll do you consider to be worst roll in backgammon?
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 6:46 p.m.
  • Toughest 52 of my life
    Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 4:19 p.m.
    • Toughest 52 of my life
      John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 4:42 p.m.
      • Toughest 52 of my life
        Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 5:51 p.m.
    • Both Five Points?
      Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 7:39 p.m.
      • Both Five Points?
        Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
    • Toughest 52 of my life
      Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 3:43 p.m.
  • Toughest 52 of my life
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 12:53 a.m.
  • Toughest 52 of my life
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
    • Toughest 52 of my life
      Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:39 a.m.
      • Toughest 52 of my life
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:21 a.m.
        • Toughest 52 of my life
          Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:26 a.m.
          • Toughest 52 of my life
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:27 a.m.
          • Toughest 52 of my life
            neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:30 a.m.
            • Toughest 52 of my life
              Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:18 p.m.
      • Toughest 52 of my life
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 2:23 p.m.
      • Toughest 52 of my life
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 3:54 p.m.
        • Toughest 52 of my life
          Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:33 p.m.
  • Toughest 52 of my life
    christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:55 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 18 January 2010, at 9:23 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 12:16 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Stick -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 12:59 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 11:00 p.m.