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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 11:00 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

I am interested in hearing your analysis. I do not believe that the small difference in equities means that the analysis is not useful. I made a similar point a little while ago when someone suggested that a problem Jason Lee posted was "a useless problem" because the top two plays were very close. In fact, positions where two very different plays evaluate to almost the same thing make the best kind of reference positions. The important thing is to understand what factors argue in favor of Play A and what factors argue in favor of Play B. A position where the factors exactly (or almost exactly) balance out is valuable because then you can deduce which play will be best if the position changes slightly in this way or that way.

Since this position is complicated, there are many factors to consider, and I'm sure there are some that you considered which other readers did not. This is the instructive part, more so than just the raw equity numbers which anyone with a bot can generate themselves.

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