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21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 7:50 p.m.

In Response To: Wild rollout results (bug?) (Nack Ballard)

Thanks for the rollouts, Chase and Neil.

Below is the 21$-54 data so far. (S = Split 24/20* 13/8, R = Run 24/20*/15.)

Snowie .. [S R12] 10k, .177, .165, seed R (Nilsson)
GnuBG ..[S R2.7] 46k, .1368, .1340, seed 1049277888 (Stick, v14.3d)

XG 3-ply [S R38] 10k, .175 .137, seed 2 (Chase)
XG 3-ply [S R40] 10k, .176 .136, seed 2 (Chase, no Jacoby)
XG 3-ply [S R27] 10k, .167 .140, seed 2 (NeilK)
XG 3-ply [S R17] 10k, .165 .149, seed R (Chase)
XG 3-ply [S R13]103k, .158 .143, seed R (NeilK)
XG 4-ply .. [S R7] 19k, .152 .145, seed R (NeilK, v1.14 pre-release)

In short, the margins (relative equities) range from 2.7 to 40 (meaning .0027 to .0400)!

I don't normally include absolute equities because it clutters up the page, distracting from analysis. (One- and two-digit relative equities are much easier to manage.) However, it is obvious, as Chase says, that something strange is going on with this position, so for Daniel or anyone who might want to help dissect or investigate this problem, I have included absolute equities and seed numbers to the right of the usual nacbrac; I've also provided links for each rollout.

For GnuBG's link, navigate to: 2nd Roll, Opening 21 Replies, 21$ 54. This rollout was done with an old version, 0.14.3-devel, which means there is a non-trivial chance the file is corrupt. The only way I know to find out for certain is to reroll it (I have v0.90-ming) 46k trials, but that's a big CPU investment. I plan to do a shorter rollout (and/or maybe David Rockwell will want to do one with Supremo setting) just to confirm/deny that the equities are in the same (low) ball park (absolute .135 and/or relative .003.)

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 4 ply RO of 21$-54
  neilkaz -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 5:18 p.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:18 p.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Chase -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:21 p.m.
    • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
      neilkaz -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:48 p.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
    • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
      eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 6:32 p.m.
      • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 7:19 p.m.
  • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
    Chase -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 7:39 p.m.
    • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
      Neil Robins -- Monday, 19 April 2010, at 8:38 p.m.
    • Currently [S R5]16k *NM*
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 7:41 p.m.
    • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 7:54 p.m.
      • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
        Chase -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 8:39 p.m.
        • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
          Chase -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 8:46 p.m.
          • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
            Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 4:35 a.m.
            • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
              Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 10:43 a.m.
              • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 10:51 a.m.
                • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                  Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 11:03 a.m.
                • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                  Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 2:11 p.m.
                  • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                    Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
                    • 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63
                      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 5:44 p.m.
              • Nacbrac information
                Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 2:43 p.m.
                • Nacbrac information
                  Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 5:04 p.m.
                  • Nacbrac information
                    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 5:25 p.m.
        • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54
          Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 3:39 a.m.
      • ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54 w/Jacoby
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 3:07 a.m.
        • Will extend this 3 ply to 100k
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 12:38 p.m.
    • XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54 - w/ Jacoby
      Chase -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 11:16 a.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
    • 4 ply RO of 21$-54
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 April 2010, at 10:11 p.m.
  • 3 ply RO of 21$-54..over 100k
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 10:11 p.m.
    • Wild rollout results (bug?)
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 1:05 a.m.
      • Wild rollout results (bug?)
        neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 1:53 a.m.
        • Re-run of RO w/ random seed and Jacoby in progress
          Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
          • Re-run of RO w/ random seed and Jacoby in progress
            Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:27 a.m.
            • Re-run of RO w/ random seed and Jacoby in progress
              Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:42 p.m.
          • Completed RO w/ Jacoby and random seed
            Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 3:05 p.m.
        • My 10k with seed 2
          neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 3:09 a.m.
      • Wild rollout results (bug?)
        Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:02 a.m.
      • Half as wild
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 2:37 a.m.
        • Half as wild
          Neil Robins -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 11:34 a.m.
        • Half as wild
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 5:01 p.m.
      • 21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 7:50 p.m.
        • 21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)
          Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 8:34 p.m.
          • 21$-54 rollout data (equities, links)
            Nack Ballard -- Friday, 23 April 2010, at 9:03 a.m.
  • 4 ply RO of 21$-54 19k and finished
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 12:08 a.m.
  • Snowie RO of 21$-54
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 7:16 p.m.
    • Snowie RO of 21$-54
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 7:37 p.m.