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41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 21 April 2010, at 4:35 a.m.

In Response To: ... and XG 3-ply RO of 21$-54 (Chase)


2O ' ' '1X4X '3X1X ' '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

41$-63



2O ' ' '1X4X '3X ' '1X5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

21$-63



2O ' ' '1X4X '4X ' ' '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

51$-63



2O ' ' '1X5X '3X ' ' '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

62$-63


Looking back over the BGO rollouts I see that 13/4 doesn't appear in the rollouts for 21$-63 and 41$-63. I'm wondering if it performed badly in evals or whether this is an oversight, since 13/4 comes out best for 62$-63 and is in the ballpark for 51$-63.

Maybe Stick (or Nack, or Neil, or someone) can shed some light.

So, Neil and I are delegated to parentheses now? :)

Here is data for the four positions (diagrammed above) that you asked about:

41$-63
Snowie .. [R S13 $82] 31k 5k$
GnuBG .. [R S8] 46k, d[S R12] 5k, g[S $16 R22 Z36] 5k

21$-63
Snowie .. [R Z11 U14 S37 D51 $54] 20k 15kS 7k
GnuBG .. [R Z11 S24] 15k, d[R U3 Z5 S9] 10k, s[R Z3] 15k, g[Z D15 $27 S30 R38] 5k

51$-63
Snowie .. [R $33 S41] 5k
GnuBG .. [R $18 S27] 10k 5k$, d[R S10] 5k, g[$ S13 D14 Z26 R30] 5k

62$-63
Snowie .. [S R5 $12] 31k, s[R $10 S14] 41k
GnuBG .. [$ S12 R16] 15k

Nactation key: S = 24/18 13/10, R = 24/15, $ = 13/4.

Error sizes are in thousandths. The match score is shown before the brackets (d = DMP, s = GS, or g = GG, else assume money), and number of rollout trials/iterations is shown after the brackets (in thousands, rounded down).

For example, see the row of Gnu's rollouts at 41$-63: "[R S8] 46k, d[S R12] 5k, g[S $16 R22 Z36] 5k." This means that for money R is best and S is -.008 after 46000+ trials; and at DMP ("d") S is best and R is -.012 after 5000+ trials; and at GG ("g") S is best, $ is -.016, R is -.022 and Z is -.036 after 5000+ trials.

In answer to your question, the more primishly imposing Opp's position is, the more you need to run or split against it (as opposed to playing catch-up in a priming battle by counter-slotting). Also, the 3 duplication is less pure when Opp has a builder on the 9pt or 11pt.

In the four diagrammed and listed positions, 41$-63, 21$-63, 51$-63 and 62$-63, the $ play (13/4) is successively more reasonable: -.082, -.054, -.033 and -.012, comparing Snowie's four margins.

Nack

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