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OLM Su 04/25/10

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 26 April 2010, at 9:12 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 04/25/10 (neilkaz)

I pass.

Fans of the PRAT method (Position, Race and Threat) can find three reasons to pass here. The least sophisticated use of PRAT says that an advantage in all three areas is probably a double/pass. Jason's approach is more thoughtful.

Neil: Ask yourself how often you win in a straight race from here and then you may see that the occasional G's lost and the opps's containment should make this at leasr a close pass.

In a straight race, I estimate White wins

78% - 1.5%*((124+12+2)-133) = 70.5%

In words and fewer numbers, I find White cash point pipcount (138) and adjust for the value of each of the five pips White is shy of the cash point. The value of each pip depends on the length of the race. 2% is a good value for races of 60-100 pips. I chose 1.5% for this 124-133 race. See:

http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+1203

http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+1399

So suppose we win 29.5% in a cubeless, gammonless and contactless race. We're well above our money game 22% or so take point. But adjust for White's gammon wins. Also adjust, I believe, for contact favoring White's game winning chances. White's pointing/priming threat is not huge, but often enough we'll waste racing numbers rolling them from the bar.

Mr. Bot says that in a straight cubeless race White wins about 71.3%.

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