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Donkey Corner #10 - Rollouts + Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 27 April 2014, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: Donkey Corner #10 (Stick)

I really didn't give this play but a passing thought OtB. I figured that after making the 4pt coming off the anchor 20/16(2) with a racing lead was sure to be the dmp play. The thing is, in a lot of situations (when to run off the anchor for eg), we don't need to worry about getting off the 20pt anchor. It can't be hemmed in. We'll often have a better opportunity to get off it or find numbers to do it later if needed.

At this score an undoubled gammon has a heightened price, ~.900. This alone should have alerted me to take a harder look at bringing two more men in the zone and creating a broken 6 prime with 9(2). Even getting hit back off the bar on the midpoint won't cause us to lose but a second of sleep as we still have the 20pt anchor. A very strong position is the result after 9(2) whether we have the opportunity to continue the attack assuming the opponent fans or enters poorly or if he enters and anchors we still have a very playable and winning position. (structurally sound)

AtS 13/5 8/4*(2) isn't bad due to the gammons won. I didn't include switching points in the rollout because even though it clearly wins the most gammons, it gives up too much positionally to be any good.

Even at dmp the plays are very close. DMP rollout below the AtS rollout.

I still find it amusing that within' the next day such a similar position could arise. Yes, they're different but have a lot of the same qualities.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 141
7 point match
pip: 150
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBC-D--AbC---cbdBb----:0:0:1:44:5:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout113/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq: +0.902
Player:
Opponent:		73.01% (G:27.14% B:1.69%)
26.99% (G:4.88% B:0.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.888...+0.915) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout113/5 8/4*(2) eq: +0.853 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		71.15% (G:28.80% B:1.75%)
28.85% (G:5.36% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.839...+0.867) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout120/16(2) 8/4*(2) eq: +0.794 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		73.01% (G:19.42% B:1.53%)
26.99% (G:5.28% B:0.25%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.778...+0.810) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80972118
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

DMP
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
1 point match
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--aBC-D--AbC---cbdBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout120/16(2) 8/4*(2) eq: +0.460
Player:
Opponent:		73.02% (G:19.08% B:1.44%)
26.98% (G:5.39% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.456...+0.465) - [88.3%]
Duration: 13 minutes 01 second
2.Rollout113/9(2) 8/4*(2) eq: +0.456 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		72.82% (G:26.51% B:2.95%)
27.18% (G:5.13% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.451...+0.461) - [11.7%]
Duration: 12 minutes 09 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48408144
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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