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Additional Variations and Rollouts

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Friday, 4 September 2015, at 8:22 p.m.

In Response To: Greedy for Gammons (Timothy Chow)

Thank you for your interesting input! I've made some additional variations.

A1 (Original position; unlimited games): Honestly, before I saw the RO results, I had assumed that the gammon seeking play 8/4(2) 5/1(2) would come off noticeably better than at 7away-7away. Still, this play is almost a blunder (I should re-study gammon values).
A2 (Deeper gap in White's home; unlimited games): I'm pretty sure that OtB I wouldn't have played 8/4(2) 5/1(2) here. White's home is now really threatening, and the gammon seeking play almost a whopper.

A1 (Original position; unlimited games) A2 (Deeper gap in White's home; unlimited games)




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
Unlimited Game
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BDBBB-Ba-A-a---a-cb-bbb-:2:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout111/3 8/4(2)eq: +1,048
Player:
Opponent:		91,67% (G:16,99% B:0,15%)
8,33% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,046...+1,051) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds
2.Rollout111/3 5/1(2)eq: +1,017 (-0,031)
Player:
Opponent:		90,56% (G:12,30% B:0,03%)
9,44% (G:0,18% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,003 (+1,015...+1,020) - [0,0%]
Duration: 57,8 seconds
3.Rollout111/3 6/2(2)eq: +1,000 (-0,048)
Player:
Opponent:		88,22% (G:7,41% B:0,06%)
11,78% (G:0,67% B:0,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,000 (+1,000...+1,000) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1,6 seconds
4.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1(2)eq: +0,993 (-0,055)
Player:
Opponent:		86,79% (G:22,39% B:0,19%)
13,21% (G:0,26% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,991...+0,996) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
5.XG Roller++11/7 8/4 5/1(2)eq: +0,933 (-0,116)
Player:
Opponent:		88,74% (G:13,80% B:0,08%)
11,26% (G:1,05% B:0,02%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59847407
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 107
Unlimited Game
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BDBBB-Ba-A-a---a-cbbbb--:2:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout111/3 8/4(2)eq: +1,027
Player:
Opponent:		90,04% (G:16,86% B:0,12%)
9,96% (G:0,01% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,025...+1,029) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
2.Rollout111/3 5/1(2)eq: +1,000 (-0,027)
Player:
Opponent:		88,80% (G:12,49% B:0,02%)
11,20% (G:0,31% B:0,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,998...+1,003) - [0,0%]
Duration: 52,0 seconds
3.Rollout111/3 6/2(2)eq: +1,000 (-0,027)
Player:
Opponent:		86,37% (G:7,21% B:0,05%)
13,63% (G:0,69% B:0,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,000 (+1,000...+1,000) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1,3 seconds
4.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1(2)eq: +0,936 (-0,091)
Player:
Opponent:		84,70% (G:21,14% B:0,13%)
15,30% (G:0,62% B:0,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,933...+0,938) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds
5.XG Roller++11/7 8/4 5/1(2)eq: +0,886 (-0,141)
Player:
Opponent:		86,52% (G:14,13% B:0,04%)
13,48% (G:1,16% B:0,03%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59847407
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

B1 (Original Position at Gammon Go): Eventually, 8/4(2) 5/1(2) comes off best, since the gammon value equals 1 at gammon go. But what happens when White has a better 5-point home?
B2 (Deeper gap in White's home; Gammon Go): 11/3 8/4(2) is again better than 8/4(2) 5/1(2) in a small dose.

B1 (Original Position at Gammon Go) B2 (Deeper gap in White's home; Gammon Go)




White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 101
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BDBBB-Ba-A-a---a-cb-bbb-:0:0:1:44:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1(2)eq: +1,186
Player:
Opponent:		86,97% (G:22,31% B:0,37%)
13,03% (G:0,45% B:0,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,184...+1,187) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 21 seconds
2.Rollout111/3 8/4(2)eq: +1,167 (-0,018)
Player:
Opponent:		91,57% (G:16,79% B:0,34%)
8,43% (G:0,02% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,165...+1,169) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds
3.XG Roller++11/3 5/1(2)eq: +1,072 (-0,114)
Player:
Opponent:		90,62% (G:12,97% B:0,05%)
9,38% (G:0,20% B:0,01%)
4.XG Roller++11/7 8/4 5/1(2)eq: +1,052 (-0,134)
Player:
Opponent:		88,33% (G:14,27% B:0,08%)
11,67% (G:0,71% B:0,01%)
5.XG Roller++11/7 8/4 6/2(2)eq: +0,897 (-0,288)
Player:
Opponent:		85,67% (G:9,21% B:0,09%)
14,33% (G:0,96% B:0,02%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54608805
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2




White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 107
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BDBBB-Ba-A-a---a-cbbbb--:0:0:1:44:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout111/3 8/4(2)eq: +1,139
Player:
Opponent:		89,96% (G:16,98% B:0,33%)
10,04% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,137...+1,141) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
2.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1(2)eq: +1,127 (-0,012)
Player:
Opponent:		83,83% (G:22,52% B:0,36%)
16,17% (G:0,96% B:0,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,002 (+1,125...+1,129) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds
3.XG Roller++11/3 5/1(2)eq: +1,042 (-0,097)
Player:
Opponent:		88,88% (G:13,22% B:0,03%)
11,12% (G:0,27% B:0,01%)
4.XG Roller++11/7 8/4 5/1(2)eq: +1,010 (-0,128)
Player:
Opponent:		85,86% (G:14,65% B:0,04%)
14,14% (G:0,72% B:0,02%)
5.XG Roller++11/3 6/2(2)eq: +0,879 (-0,260)
Player:
Opponent:		86,79% (G:7,16% B:0,05%)
13,21% (G:0,60% B:0,02%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54608805
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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