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BGonline.org Forums
Estimating winning chances
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Estimating winning chances (Chase)
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2015, at 3:08 p.m.
Put White's rolls into 3 categories and estimate Blue's wins in each. 1) 10 jokers escape past the mid. They average ~13 pips each so I will give Blue 3% racing chances here, 0.3 wins. 2) 6 numbers leave a shot (4 double shots, 2 single shots). Blue hits 2.8 times and wins 2.5 of these plus wins 3% of the 3.2 where he fails to hit = about 2.6 more wins. That's 2.9 wins out of the 16 games we've looked at so far. 3) The other 20 numbers that don't blot and don't escape. White mainly plays these numbers by playing with the blot on his 6-point. This creates more blotting numbers for White but fewer double shots for Blue since he might have to give up the 11-point. Assuming Blue gives up the 11-point, 12 numbers now leave a direct shot which gets hit a third of the time and I'll give Blue 5% racing chances when he fails to hit because of White's extra wastage. Giving Blue 3.5 wins out of the 4 where he hits and 0.4 on the 8 where he doesn't sounds about right. Plus Blue figures to win 5% of White's 10 clearing jokers. That's 4.4 wins out of White's 22 numbers in this category. The other 14 that neither blot nor clear safely force White to crunch his board even further which hurt his racing chances and improve Blue's hitting chances since some 4s will also force a blot. I'll guess Blue wins 30% of these so Blue's overall chances in this category are a shade over 25%. A quarter of 20 is 5.
The total wins therefore are about 8/36, a little over 22%. G's are pretty unlikely for either side so 22% cubeless chances should be enough for a close take.
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