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BGonline.org Forums
The 'window' that is not a window..
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: The 'window' that is not a window.. (sebalotek)
Date: Friday, 25 August 2017, at 7:33 p.m.
I should probably just keep my mouth shut since Bob gave such a cogent explanation, but since I instigated the thread I feel like I should say something.
The doubling window is based on the match score and the cube position. It is unaffected by the position of the checkers. Of course, the checker position dictates the GWC which you can apply to the doubling window, but it also dictates the volatility of the position i.e. the number of market losers.
As Bob says, if there aren't any market losers then you might as well sit on the cube and see where you are next roll. If there are only a few, then it still might be right to hold. As you get closer to the cash point you need fewer market losers to make the cube correct.
So, there's not one number that says "At N% GWC it is correct to cube". It's more complicated than that.
And I don't recall anyone else saying it, but since the window calculation doesn't include gammons you can be in the doubling window and be TG, just as you can be in the doubling window and not be good enough.
As a final thought, there's a much simpler example of a correct double when below the doubling window. At 2a2a, the loser of the opening roll is less than 50% to win, but he should double anyway since his opponent will double if he doesn't. (BTW, putting this into XG gives a razor thin no double, but I'm fairly certain this is noise) Of course, Bob's example is better in that failing to double is a significant error where here it isn't.
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