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Money-play endgame decision

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 22 January 2010, at 6:42 p.m.

In Response To: Money-play endgame decision (Timothy Chow)

I also slot, echoing Stick's and Neil's reason of gammon avoidance. Change White's board from three points to two points and I might not lift.

Regarding the winning chances, the decision is more sophisticated than how many numbers cover the 6pt or or the eventual chances of covering the 6pt. Blue wants to lift to the 5pt or 4pt rather than a deeper point (i.e., he might roll a 2 or 1 next roll). Also, he might sometimes gain by bearing in and taking the 6 off, or he might even choose to bear in and off leaving the 6pt slotted in order to gain a half or full roll (having secured the gammon save).

With those factors in mind, I would lift with 31 or 41 (or of course 11 or 21), but I would not lift with 51 (in spite of similar gammon risk) -- and to be clear it's not just because 5 numbers cover the 6pt instead of 3 or 2. Bearoff wastage and straggler speed are crucial elements in an otherwise close decision.

Nack

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