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RO surprise: winning the most games AND most gammons is not the best move...?!

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 1:21 p.m.

In Response To: Simple bearin technique (Klaus Evers)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
7 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABbaJ--B--aa-----bbabba-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0,981
Player:
Opponent:
73,60% (G:11,10% B:0,17%)
26,40% (G:2,26% B:0,07%)
Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,969...+0,993) - [100,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 21 seconds
2.Rollout19/5* 5/2eq: +0,859 (-0,122)
Player:
Opponent:
75,87% (G:16,01% B:0,42%)
24,13% (G:1,99% B:0,07%)
Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,851...+0,867) - [0,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 28 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

I still cann not understand why my move didn't win the RO. With the cube centered, the play with the best gwc should give me the best opportunity to double next roll.


Now with the right cubeaction:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
7 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABbaJ--B--aa-----bbabba-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout19/5* 5/2eq: +0,614
Player:
Opponent:
77,98% (G:15,44% B:0,52%)
22,02% (G:1,70% B:0,07%)
Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,607...+0,621) - [100,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0,481 (-0,133)
Player:
Opponent:
73,60% (G:11,10% B:0,17%)
26,40% (G:2,26% B:0,07%)
Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,476...+0,487) - [0,0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point


DMP here:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
1 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABbaJ--B--aa-----bbabba-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout19/5* 5/2eq: +0,541
Player:
Opponent:
77,04% (G:24,21% B:0,82%)
22,96% (G:1,40% B:0,10%)
Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,537...+0,545) - [100,0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 50 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0,455 (-0,086)
Player:
Opponent:
72,75% (G:18,17% B:0,30%)
27,25% (G:1,63% B:0,05%)
Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,451...+0,459) - [0,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point


And yes, sure, MD on my part before I rolled 43:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
7 point match
pip: 86
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABbaJ--B--aa-----bbabba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68,77% (G:10,57% B:0,18%) 69,70% (G:10,80% B:0,18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31,23% (G:2,83% B:0,07%) 30,30% (G:2,74% B:0,07%)
Cubeless Equities +0,457 +0,979
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,621 (-0,131)
Double/Take:+0,752
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,248)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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