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Luck vs Skill Summery of. the Robertie statement.
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Luck vs Skill Summery of. the Robertie statement. (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 10 June 2012, at 8:00 p.m.
Ref. r.g.bg discussion in July 2007 and in August 1995.
In comparing the games in the Inside Backgammon article, for chess Robertie meant one game with professional time controlsm, for backgammon, a 25-point match, and for poker, 4 to 5 hours of poker. But I don't believe he specified any particular kind of poker -- not NLHE (multi- or heads-up), or any other kind -- discussioneers made note of that.
In the 2007 thread I wrote:
"Frigo's article refers to one by Bill Robertie that appeared in Inside Backgammon in 1992. That's where the 25-point match length comes from.
"Robertie was attempting to quantify the complexity of various games: Go, Chess, Scrabble, Poker, Backgammon, Draughts, Blackjack, Craps, Lotteries, Roulette. He took chess as an example: take the best player in the world; find someone who beats the best player in the world 25% of the time; find someone else who beats that second player 25% of the time; and so on until you reach the bottom of the barrel -- an absolute beginner. The number of skill differentials between best in the world and absolute beginner is what Robertie called a "Complexity Number." The more skill differentials, the greater the Complexity Number, the more complex the game. Robertie's list:
Go 40
Chess 14
Scrabble 10
Poker 10
Backgammon 8
Draughts 8
Blackjack 2
Craps 0.001
Lotteries 0.0000001
Roulette 0
"Why a 25-point match? Because that's what Robertie thought would make for a meaningful comparison to chess and other games. He explained: "We can now apply this process to any game, although we may have to give some thought as to what constitutes a meaningful contest. In chess, a single tournament game of four to five hours seems reasonable. In backgammon it would probably be a 25-point match, in scrabble perhaps a best of five series, and so on." A 25-point backgammon match should also take about 4 to 5 hours. See David Montgomery in the rec.games.backgammon thread "Which is greater: luck or skill" beginning Aug 29 1995.
"In chess, I believe, a players with a 200 rating point advantage has an expected score of 0.75. Similarly in backgammon, the player with a 200 point advantage rates to win 75% of the time -- in a long 25-point match, that is, not a 1-point quickie.
> The article as well made mention of a professional
: environment, a 25-point match, while for poker,
: that lassitude isn't given."Feel free to suggest some other format for a poker contest, lasting 4-5 hours, that you believe would be approximately comparable in the amount of skill required by one professional game of chess, or one 25- point backgammon match, or a game of Go."
Link to 1995: TinyURL.com/2a3g7b
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