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Some questions/comments re: opening roll RO's

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 13 December 2012, at 5:05 p.m.

In Response To: Some questions/comments re: opening roll RO's (Tom Keith)

Using bots on weaker settings is a very artificial way of trying to emulate weaker players. Weak players play less like bots on weak settings than strong players play like bots on strong settings.

Of course "weak" and "strong" are relative terms. (I wasn't talking about the randomization methods of stupidifying bots, which some have tried in the past.) A weak bot can be a strong human. It would be interesting to know where the best humans really fall in bot strength. One measure is error rate. There are pitfalls in this comparison (as there will be in any study), and unfortunately the foxes guard the hen houses. To be more direct the humans who get compared are likely the most vociferous in claiming that they are stronger than bots of similar error ratings. The flip-side of that is that the bots are the judges of their own strength, as well as human strength, when you simply use the calculated error rates.

All of this borders on the academic, but then so does passing after opening 43 because the rollout says it's correct by a tiny amount when mega-bot plays against itself -- so tiny it takes many 10's of thousands of rollouts to reach statistical significance. Throw in the fact that the previous strongest bot rollouts showed it was correct to take.

The general rule is "take the best information available" but I'm questioning whether or not mega-bot vs. mega-bot is really that.

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